| Outcome | Price (¢) | Implied | Normalised | Decimal equivalent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome A | — | — | — | |
| Draw | — | — | — | |
| Outcome B | — | — | — | |
| Sum of prices — | Gap from 100¢ — | |||
| Match | Prices | Sum | Normalised favourite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle – Everton FCPremier League · Kalshi | 44¢ · 27¢ · 29¢ | 100¢ | Newcastle44.0% |
| Villarreal – Paris Saint-Germain FCUEFA Champions League · Polymarket | 18¢ · 20¢ · 61¢ | 99¢ | Paris Saint-Germain FC61.6% |
| Pakhtakor – Al Nassr ClubAFC Champions League Elite · Polymarket | 12¢ · 19¢ · 67¢ | 98¢ | Al Nassr Club68.4% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica – FC AlvercaPrimeira Liga · Polymarket | 86¢ · 9¢ · 4¢ | 99¢ | Sport Lisboa e Benfica86.9% |
| Atalanta BC – Parma Calcio 1913Serie A · Polymarket | 64¢ · 21¢ · 15¢ | 100¢ | Atalanta BC64.0% |
| Seahawks – BearsNFL · Polymarket | 61¢ · 38¢ | 99¢ | Seahawks61.6% |
| Al Sadd – Al Ahli Saudi ClubAFC Champions League Elite · Kalshi | 34¢ · 24¢ · 41¢ | 99¢ | Al Ahli Saudi Club41.4% |
| Red Bull Bragantino – Santos FCBrasileirão Série A · Polymarket | 48¢ · 23¢ · 28¢ | 99¢ | Red Bull Bragantino48.5% |
<div class="tips-widget" data-type="tool" data-key="pm" data-theme="light"><a href="https://x.tips/tools/prediction-market-probability">Prediction market price to probability – Tips</a></div>
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<p><a href="https://x.tips/tools/prediction-market-probability">Prediction market price to probability – Tips</a></p>Roughly, yes. A contract settles at 1 unit if the outcome happens and 0 if it does not, so a 63¢ price means traders as a group price the outcome at about 63%.
The displayed prices come from an order book with a gap between the best buy and sell prices, and they are rounded. Dividing each price by the sum gives a normalised probability that adds up to 100%.
The price each platform shows on its own market page for that outcome, rounded down to a whole number, the same figure shown on our match pages.
Divide 100 by the price in cents. A 40¢ contract is equivalent to decimal odds of 2.50; our odds converter does the other formats.
No. An 80¢ price still means about a one-in-five chance that it does not happen. Prices are a market estimate, not a guarantee, and past performance does not indicate future results.
Convert decimal, fractional, American, Hong Kong, Malay and Indonesian odds; margin and fair probability for 2-way and 3-way markets.
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