| Outcome | Decimal | Implied | Fair (no margin) | Fair decimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Side A / Home | — | — | — | |
| Draw | — | — | — | |
| Side B / Away | — | — | — | |
| Total implied | — | Margin — | ||
| Decimal | Implied probability | Fractional | American | Hong Kong |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.10 | 90.9% | 1/10 | −1000 | 0.10 |
| 1.20 | 83.3% | 1/5 | −500 | 0.20 |
| 1.25 | 80.0% | 1/4 | −400 | 0.25 |
| 1.33 | 75.2% | 22/67 | −303 | 0.33 |
| 1.40 | 71.4% | 2/5 | −250 | 0.40 |
| 1.50 | 66.7% | 1/2 | −200 | 0.50 |
| 1.60 | 62.5% | 3/5 | −167 | 0.60 |
| 1.67 | 59.9% | 2/3 | −149 | 0.67 |
| 1.75 | 57.1% | 3/4 | −133 | 0.75 |
| 1.80 | 55.6% | 4/5 | −125 | 0.80 |
| 1.90 | 52.6% | 9/10 | −111 | 0.90 |
| 2.00 | 50.0% | 1/1 | +100 | 1.00 |
| 2.10 | 47.6% | 11/10 | +110 | 1.10 |
| 2.20 | 45.5% | 6/5 | +120 | 1.20 |
| 2.50 | 40.0% | 3/2 | +150 | 1.50 |
| 2.75 | 36.4% | 7/4 | +175 | 1.75 |
| 3.00 | 33.3% | 2/1 | +200 | 2.00 |
| 3.50 | 28.6% | 5/2 | +250 | 2.50 |
| 4.00 | 25.0% | 3/1 | +300 | 3.00 |
| 5.00 | 20.0% | 4/1 | +400 | 4.00 |
| 6.00 | 16.7% | 5/1 | +500 | 5.00 |
| 8.00 | 12.5% | 7/1 | +700 | 7.00 |
| 11.00 | 9.1% | 10/1 | +1000 | 10.00 |
<div class="tips-widget" data-type="tool" data-key="odds" data-theme="light"><a href="https://x.tips/tools/odds-converter">Odds to probability converter – Tips</a></div>
<script async src="https://x.tips/widget.js"></script><iframe src="https://x.tips/widget/tool/odds?theme=light" width="100%" height="490" style="border:0;max-width:420px" loading="lazy" title="Odds to probability converter – Tips"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://x.tips/tools/odds-converter">Odds to probability converter – Tips</a></p>It is the chance of an outcome that a price represents. For decimal odds it is 1 divided by the price: 2.00 means 50%, 1.50 means 66.7%, 4.00 means 25%.
Prices usually include a margin. If a 3-way market is priced 2.00 / 3.40 / 4.00, the implied probabilities are 50.0% + 29.4% + 25.0% = 104.4%. The extra 4.4% is the margin.
Divide each implied probability by their total. In the example above, 50.0% ÷ 104.4% gives a fair probability of 47.9% for the first outcome. The second calculator on this page does this for you.
They are formats used in Asia. Hong Kong odds show the net return per unit (decimal minus 1). Malay and Indonesian odds use positive and negative numbers around 1, similar to American odds but scaled to 1 instead of 100.
On a prediction market a contract pays 1 unit if the outcome happens, so a price of 0.40 already is a 40% implied probability. Our prediction-market tool explains this in detail.
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