| Outcome | Price (¢) | Implied | Normalised | Decimal equivalent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome A | — | — | — | |
| Draw | — | — | — | |
| Outcome B | — | — | — | |
| Sum of prices — | Gap from 100¢ — | |||
| Match | Prices | Sum | Normalised favourite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool FC – Arsenal FCPremier League · Kalshi | 33¢ · 28¢ · 37¢ | 98¢ | Arsenal FC37.8% |
| Real Racing Club – Real MadridLa Liga · Polymarket | 8¢ · 11¢ · 80¢ | 99¢ | Real Madrid80.8% |
| Como 1907 – Venezia FCSerie A · Kalshi | 75¢ · 14¢ · 9¢ | 98¢ | Como 190776.5% |
| SC Braga – FamalicaoPrimeira Liga · Kalshi | 56¢ · 26¢ · 17¢ | 99¢ | SC Braga56.6% |
| Bills – RavensNFL · Polymarket | 61¢ · 38¢ | 99¢ | Bills61.6% |
| Rockets – ThunderNBA · Polymarket | 57¢ · 42¢ | 99¢ | Rockets57.6% |
| Bengals – TitansNFL · Polymarket | 86¢ · 13¢ | 99¢ | Bengals86.9% |
| CA Boca Juniors – CA River PlateLiga Profesional · Polymarket | 42¢ · 31¢ · 27¢ | 100¢ | CA Boca Juniors42.0% |
<div class="tips-widget" data-type="tool" data-key="pm" data-theme="light"><a href="https://x.tips/tools/prediction-market-probability">Prediction market price to probability – Tips</a></div>
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<p><a href="https://x.tips/tools/prediction-market-probability">Prediction market price to probability – Tips</a></p>Roughly, yes. A contract settles at 1 unit if the outcome happens and 0 if it does not, so a 63¢ price means traders as a group price the outcome at about 63%.
The displayed prices come from an order book with a gap between the best buy and sell prices, and they are rounded. Dividing each price by the sum gives a normalised probability that adds up to 100%.
The price each platform shows on its own market page for that outcome, rounded down to a whole number, the same figure shown on our match pages.
Divide 100 by the price in cents. A 40¢ contract is equivalent to decimal odds of 2.50; our odds converter does the other formats.
No. An 80¢ price still means about a one-in-five chance that it does not happen. Prices are a market estimate, not a guarantee, and past performance does not indicate future results.
Convert decimal, fractional, American, Hong Kong, Malay and Indonesian odds; margin and fair probability for 2-way and 3-way markets.
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