Kalshi · Football
ToneDef is a World Cup pro on Kalshi: 19 picks, 63.2% win rate, $4K profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 60 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 60 have settled: 33 won, 27 lost, 55.0% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Cup | 27 | 27 | 16 | 59.3% |
| NFL | 23 | 23 | 10 | 43.5% |
| NCAAF | 5 | 5 | 4 | 80.0% |
| WNBA | 4 | 4 | 3 | — |
| NBA | 1 | 1 | 0 | — |
ToneDef mainly predicts World Cup: 27 of the last 60 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 63.2% hit rate over 19 orders, P&L $4K, ROI 48.3%. In World Cup, 16 of 27 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-10-20 18:47 UTC+0. Method: methodology
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | San Antonio Spurs 104:116 Oklahoma City Thunder NBA | San Antonio wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-09 | Dallas Cowboys 16:24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL | Dallas wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-04 | Las Vegas Raiders 27:30 Kansas City Chiefs NFL | Kansas City wins | Won |
| 2026-10-04 | HOU Texans 30:34 DAL Cowboys NFL | Dallas wins | Won |
| 2026-09-20 | Kansas City Chiefs 33:30 IND Colts NFL | Indianapolis wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-20 | Los Angeles Chargers 14:26 Las Vegas Raiders NFL | Los Angeles C wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-20 | DAL Cowboys 37:20 WAS Commanders NFL | Washington wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-20 | ATL Falcons 3:34 CAR Panthers NFL | Over 43.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-20 | New England Patriots 20:3 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL | Under 41.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-20 | HOU Texans 6:20 CIN Bengals NFL | Houston wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-20 | New York Jets 17:20 Green Bay Packers NFL | Green Bay wins | Won |
| 2026-09-20 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19:23 CLE Browns NFL | Tampa Bay wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-20 | BAL Ravens 17:24 New Orleans Saints NFL | Baltimore wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-20 | Tennessee Titans 20:24 PHI Eagles NFL | Philadelphia wins | Won |
| 2026-09-14 | Kansas City Chiefs 31:10 Denver Broncos NFL | Denver vs Kansas City Pro Football game: Denver wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-13 | New York G 28:20 Dallas Cowboys NFL | Dak Prescott: 250+ passing yards | Lost |
| 2026-09-13 | New York G 28:20 Dallas Cowboys NFL | Dak Prescott: 2+ passing touchdowns | Won |
| 2026-09-13 | New York G 28:20 Dallas Cowboys NFL | Dallas win the 1st Half | Lost |
| 2026-09-13 | New York G 28:20 Dallas Cowboys NFL | DAL -3.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-13 | Carolina Panthers 37:59 Chicago Bears NFL | Chicago vs Carolina Pro Football game: Chicago wins | Won |
| 2026-09-13 | Texas Longhorns 24:23 Ohio St. NCAAF | Texas to win | Won |
| 2026-09-12 | New York G 28:20 Dallas Cowboys NFL | Dallas vs New York G Pro Football game: Dallas wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-12 | Philadelphia Eagles 24:22 Washington Commanders NFL | Washington vs Philadelphia Pro Football game: Philadelphia wins | Won |
| 2026-09-12 | Indianapolis Colts 23:41 Baltimore Ravens NFL | Baltimore vs Indianapolis Pro Football game: Baltimore wins | Won |
| 2026-09-12 | Houston Texans 31:36 Buffalo Bills NFL | Buffalo vs Houston Pro Football game: Buffalo wins | Won |
| 2026-09-12 | Texas Longhorns 24:23 Ohio St. NCAAF | Ohio St. to win | Lost |
| 2026-09-12 | Michigan Wolverines 17:10 Oklahoma NCAAF | Michigan to win | Won |
| 2026-09-12 | Kentucky Wildcats 17:45 Alabama Crimson Tide NCAAF | ALA -9.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-12 | BYU Cougars 28:17 Arizona NCAAF | BYU -7.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-19 | Las Vegas Aces 82:97 Atlanta Dream WNBA | Atlanta vs Las Vegas women's Pro Basketball game: Atlanta wins | Won |
| 2026-08-18 | Chicago Sky 93:86 New York Liberty WNBA | Under 183.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-18 | Las Vegas Aces 82:97 Atlanta Dream WNBA | Atlanta vs Las Vegas women's Pro Basketball game: Las Vegas wins | Lost |
| 2026-08-18 | Toronto Tempo 95:101 Indiana Fever WNBA | Indiana vs Toronto women's Pro Basketball game: Indiana wins | Won |
| 2026-07-19 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 0:0 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | Argentina win in Penalty Shootout | Lost |
| 2026-07-08 | France 2:0 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | France vs Morocco Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-07 | Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) 0:0 Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) FIFA World Cup | Switzerland win in Penalty Shootout | Won |
| 2026-07-07 | Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) 0:0 Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) FIFA World Cup | Switzerland win in Regulation Time | Lost |
| 2026-07-07 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 3:2 Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) FIFA World Cup | Argentina vs Egypt: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-07 | USA 1:4 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | USA vs Belgium: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-06 | USA 1:4 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | USA vs Belgium Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-06 | Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) 2:3 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Mexico vs England Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-02 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 2:1 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | Portugal vs Croatia Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-01 | USA 2:0 Bosnia and Herzegovina men's national football team (Bosnia and Herzegovina) FIFA World Cup | USA wins 2-1 | Lost |
| 2026-07-01 | USA 2:0 Bosnia and Herzegovina men's national football team (Bosnia and Herzegovina) FIFA World Cup | USA wins 2-0 | Won |
| 2026-06-20 | Germany 2:1 Ivory Coast men's national football team (Ivory Coast) FIFA World Cup | Germany vs Ivory Coast Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-20 | Netherlands 5:1 Sweden men's national football team (Sweden) FIFA World Cup | Netherlands vs Sweden Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-20 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 3:0 Haiti men's national football team (Haiti) FIFA World Cup | Brazil vs Haiti Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-19 | Scotland men's national football team (Scotland) 0:1 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | Scotland vs Morocco Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-19 | USA 2:0 Australia men's national soccer team (Australia) FIFA World Cup | USA vs Australia Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-19 | Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) 1:0 South Korea men's national football team (Korea Republic) FIFA World Cup | Mexico vs Korea Republic Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-18 | Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) 1:0 South Korea men's national football team (Korea Republic) FIFA World Cup | Mexico vs Korea Republic Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-18 | Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) 4:1 Bosnia and Herzegovina men's national football team (Bosnia and Herzegovina) FIFA World Cup | Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-18 | Uzbekistan men's national football team (Uzbekistan) 1:3 Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) FIFA World Cup | Uzbekistan vs Colombia Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-17 | England men's national association football team (England) 4:2 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | England vs Croatia Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-16 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 3:0 Algeria men's national football team (Algeria) FIFA World Cup | Argentina vs Algeria Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-16 | IR Iran 2:2 New Zealand men's national football team (New Zealand) FIFA World Cup | IR Iran vs New Zealand Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-15 | Saudi Arabia men's national football team (Saudi Arabia) 1:1 Uruguay men's national football team (Uruguay) FIFA World Cup | Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-15 | Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) 1:1 Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) FIFA World Cup | Belgium vs Egypt Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-15 | Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) 1:1 Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) FIFA World Cup | Belgium vs Egypt Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-15 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 0:0 Cape Verde men's national football team (Cape Verde) FIFA World Cup | Spain vs Cape Verde Winner | Won |