Kalshi · Football
trail.bear is a MLB pro on Kalshi: 29 picks, 69.0% win rate, $2K profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 60 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 59 have settled: 20 won, 39 lost, 33.9% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 11 | 11 | 6 | 54.5% |
| Liga MX | 11 | 11 | 6 | 54.5% |
| NFL | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
| NCAAF | 6 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
| Intl Friendlies | 3 | 3 | 0 | — |
| MLS | 2 | 2 | 0 | — |
trail.bear mainly predicts MLB: 11 of the last 60 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 69.0% hit rate over 29 orders, P&L $2K, ROI 64.3%. In MLB, 6 of 11 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-10-18 20:39 UTC+0. Method: methodology
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Las Vegas Raiders 30:33 Buffalo Bills NFL | Las Vegas wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-18 | Cleveland Guardians Tampa Bay Rays MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Lost |
| 2026-10-17 | Georgia Bulldogs 24:27 Auburn Tigers NCAAF | Georgia wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-17 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions 15:21 Alabama State Hornets NCAAF | Arkansas-Pine Bluff wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-17 | Minnesota 3:2 St. Louis City SC (Saint Louis) MLS | Tie is the result | Lost |
| 2026-10-17 | Buffalo 25:18 Massachusetts Minutemen NCAAF | Buffalo wins | Won |
| 2026-10-17 | RC Strasbourg Alsace 1:3 Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) Ligue 1 | Strasbourg Alsace wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-17 | Villarreal CF 0:0 Elche CF La Liga | Tie is the result | Won |
| 2026-10-17 | Atlante F.C. (Atlante FC) 1:2 Pumas UNAM Liga MX | Pumas UNAM wins | Won |
| 2026-10-16 | Corum 2:1 Çaykur Rizespor (Rizespor) Super Lig | Tie is the result | Lost |
| 2026-10-16 | NK Aluminij (Aluminij Kidricevo) 0:1 Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenian Prva Liga | Tie is the result | Lost |
| 2026-10-16 | FC Banik Ostrava B 2:1 Slavia Prague B Czech National Football League | Tie is the result | Lost |
| 2026-10-16 | Denver Broncos 17:14 Seattle Seahawks NFL | Seattle wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-15 | RC Celta de Vigo (Celta Vigo) 1:2 Juventus FC Europa League | Tie is the result | Lost |
| 2026-10-15 | Los Angeles FC 3:1 Austin FC MLS | Los Angeles F wins 1st Half | Lost |
| 2026-10-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers 2:6 Milwaukee Brewers MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Lost |
| 2026-10-12 | Atlanta Falcons 23:30 Baltimore Ravens NFL | Atlanta wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-12 | Pumas UNAM 3:3 Cruz Azul (CF Cruz Azul) Liga MX | Tie is the result | Won |
| 2026-10-12 | América de Cali (America Cali) 1:2 Ind. Medellin Colombian Liga DIMAYOR | Tie is the result | Lost |
| 2026-10-12 | Pumas UNAM 3:3 Cruz Azul (CF Cruz Azul) Liga MX | Pumas UNAM wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-11 | Atlas F.C. (Atlas FC) 1:1 C.D. Guadalajara (CD Guadalajara) Liga MX | Tie 1st Half | Lost |
| 2026-10-11 | Atlas F.C. (Atlas FC) 1:1 C.D. Guadalajara (CD Guadalajara) Liga MX | Tie is the result | Won |
| 2026-10-11 | Cleveland Guardians 2:0 Chicago White Sox MLB | first 5 innings tie | Lost |
| 2026-10-10 | Cleveland Guardians 2:0 Chicago White Sox MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Won |
| 2026-10-10 | Oregon Ducks 15:17 UCLA Bruins NCAAF | UCLA wins | Won |
| 2026-10-09 | Suwon 1:0 Hwaseong FC Korea K League 2 | Tie is the result | Lost |
| 2026-10-07 | San Diego Padres 4:3 Milwaukee Brewers MLB | Under 7.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-07 | Golden State Warriors 124:98 Los Angeles Lakers NBA | Los Angeles L wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-07 | San Diego Padres 4:3 Milwaukee Brewers MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Won |
| 2026-10-06 | USA 1:0 Canadian men's national soccer team (Canada) Intl Friendlies | 1H Over 1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-02 | CLE Browns 27:24 PIT Steelers NFL | Pittsburgh wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-27 | Cleveland Browns 21:18 Carolina Panthers NFL | Carolina wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-27 | Santos Laguna (Club Santos Laguna) 1:0 CF Pachuca Liga MX | Tie is the result | Lost |
| 2026-09-27 | Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) 1:1 Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) Intl Friendlies | Mexico wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-27 | Cruz Azul (CF Cruz Azul) 3:3 Toluca FC (Toluca) Liga MX | Tie is the result | Won |
| 2026-09-26 | USC Trojans 27:41 Oregon Ducks NCAAF | USC wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-26 | Jarfalla 2:4 Eskilstuna Ettan | Tie is the result | Lost |
| 2026-09-26 | California Golden Bears 10:24 Clemson Tigers NCAAF | California wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-26 | Tijuana de Caliente 2:3 Atlas F.C. (Atlas FC) Liga MX | Tie is the result | Lost |
| 2026-09-24 | Japan men's national football team (Japan) 3:1 Uruguay men's national football team (Uruguay) Intl Friendlies | Uruguay wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-23 | San Francisco 2:4 Minnesota MLB | San Francisco wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-22 | Los Angeles Rams 28:6 New York Giants NFL | New York G wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-21 | Querétaro F.C. (Queretaro) 1:1 Leon Liga MX | Tie is the result | Won |
| 2026-09-18 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Greuther Furth) 1:1 Magdeburg Bundesliga 2 | Tie is the result | Won |
| 2026-09-18 | JaPS 1:0 Ekenas Finnish Ykkosliiga | Tie is the result | Lost |
| 2026-09-18 | Bandirma 0:1 Umraniye TFF 1. Lig | Tie is the result | Lost |
| 2026-09-18 | Doosan Bears 6:6 Kiwoom Heroes Korea KBO | Kiwoom Heroes wins | Pending |
| 2026-09-17 | ENPPI SC (Enppi) 1:2 Pyramids FC (Pyramids) Egyptian Premier League | Pyramids wins | Won |
| 2026-09-17 | Real Betis Balompié (Real Betis) 1:0 Getafe CF La Liga | Over 1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-17 | OFI Crete F.C. (OFI Crete) 2:0 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (Hoffenheim) Europa League | OFI Crete wins | Won |
| 2026-09-17 | San Diego FC 1:2 Tijuana de Caliente Club Friendlies | San Diego FC wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-16 | Arizona Diamondbacks 2:4 Miami Marlins MLB | Arizona wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-16 | New York Mets 5:7 Baltimore MLB | Baltimore wins | Won |
| 2026-09-16 | Cleveland Guardians 7:6 Chicago WS MLB | Cleveland wins | Won |
| 2026-09-16 | Sao Paulo 1:1 Boca Juniors CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Reg Time: Boca Juniors wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-16 | Tampa Bay Rays 2:1 Athletics MLB | Tampa Bay wins | Won |
| 2026-09-12 | Club Necaxa 0:1 Puebla F.C. (Club Puebla) Liga MX | Tie is the result | Lost |
| 2026-09-11 | Pumas UNAM 3:1 Leon Liga MX | Pumas UNAM wins | Won |
| 2026-09-11 | Millonarios 1:1 Cali Colombian Liga DIMAYOR | Tie is the result | Won |
| 2026-09-10 | Al Jazira Club (Al Jazira) 1:1 Al-Nasr UAE Pro League | Tie is the result | Won |