Kalshi · American football · Basketball
tough.risk is a NCAAF pro on Kalshi: 74 picks, 62.5% win rate, $2K profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 60 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 58 have settled: 35 won, 23 lost, 60.3% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAF | 31 | 30 | 19 | 63.3% |
| NFL | 21 | 21 | 11 | 52.4% |
| NBA | 5 | 5 | 4 | 80.0% |
| MLB | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| WNBA | 1 | 1 | 0 | — |
tough.risk mainly predicts NCAAF: 31 of the last 60 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 62.5% hit rate over 74 orders, P&L $2K, ROI 24.8%. In NCAAF, 19 of 30 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-10-27 23:14 UTC+0. Method: methodology
LLWWW
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | New York Knicks 111:97 Detroit Pistons NBA | NYK -2.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-27 | Missouri State Bears 24:3 Sam Houston Bearkats NCAAF | MOSU +7.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-27 | Tampa Bay Rays 2:2 Milwaukee Brewers MLB | Tampa Bay wins | Pending |
| 2026-10-27 | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 21:35 Delaware Blue Hens NCAAF | WKU -1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-26 | Seattle Seahawks 20:3 Kansas City Chiefs NFL | SEA -2.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-26 | Seattle Seahawks 20:3 Kansas City Chiefs NFL | SEA -1.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-25 | New Orleans Saints 10:16 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL | Under 45.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-24 | Stanford Cardinal 31:28 NC St. NCAAF | Under 65.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-24 | Tulsa Golden Hurricane 35:38 Army Black Knights NCAAF | Army wins | Won |
| 2026-10-24 | Virginia Cavaliers 16:19 Duke Blue Devils NCAAF | Under 47.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-23 | Orlando Magic 93:115 Minnesota Timberwolves NBA | MIN -9.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-23 | Milwaukee Bucks 125:132 Chicago Bulls NBA | MIL -1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-23 | Chicago Bears 30:24 New England Patriots NFL | CHI +4.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-22 | Appalachian St. 34:31 James Madison Dukes NCAAF | JMU -9.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-22 | Los Angeles Lakers 127:105 Golden State Warriors NBA | LAL -4.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-22 | Sam Houston Bearkats 24:30 New Mexico State Aggies NCAAF | NMSU -2.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-22 | Sam Houston Bearkats 24:30 New Mexico State Aggies NCAAF | SHSU -1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-20 | Detroit Pistons 121:113 Boston Celtics NBA | Over 220.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-19 | Golden State Valkyries 65:79 Atlanta Dream WNBA | Golden State wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-19 | Green Bay Packers 23:13 Dallas Cowboys NFL | Over 50.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-18 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19:26 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL | PIT -2.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-18 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19:26 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL | TB -6.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-18 | Jacksonville Jaguars 31:34 Houston Texans NFL | Houston wins | Won |
| 2026-10-18 | Jacksonville Jaguars 31:34 Houston Texans NFL | HOU -2.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-18 | Jacksonville Jaguars 31:34 Houston Texans NFL | JAC -1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-18 | Colorado Buffaloes 24:27 Utah Utes NCAAF | Colorado wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-18 | Oklahoma Sooners 13:21 Kentucky Wildcats NCAAF | Kentucky wins | Won |
| 2026-10-17 | Tennessee 26:10 Alabama Crimson Tide NCAAF | TENN -2.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-17 | Texas Longhorns 24:27 Florida Gators NCAAF | TEX +7.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-17 | James Madison Dukes 49:22 Georgia State Panthers NCAAF | JMU -21.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-17 | Texas Longhorns 24:27 Florida Gators NCAAF | TEX -9.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-17 | Tulane Green Wave 31:17 Memphis Tigers NCAAF | TULN -1.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-09 | Alabama State Hornets 27:28 Florida A&M Rattlers NCAAF | ALST +10.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-09 | Alabama State Hornets 27:28 Florida A&M Rattlers NCAAF | ALST -14.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-08 | Kennesaw State Owls 26:27 Jacksonville State Gamecocks NCAAF | Jacksonville St. wins | Won |
| 2026-10-07 | Florida International Panthers 22:3 New Mexico State Aggies NCAAF | FIU -5.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-06 | New Orleans Saints 24:45 ATL Falcons NFL | ATL +14.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-05 | Cleveland Guardians 3:4 Chicago White Sox MLB | F5 Under 3.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-05 | CAR Panthers 32:26 DET Lions NFL | DET -2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-05 | CAR Panthers 32:26 DET Lions NFL | DET +6.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-04 | Las Vegas Raiders 27:30 Kansas City Chiefs NFL | LV -2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-04 | San Francisco 49ers 24:14 DEN Broncos NFL | Under 52.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-04 | Buffalo Bills 26:29 New England Patriots NFL | Buffalo wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-04 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14:17 Green Bay Packers NFL | Tampa Bay wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-04 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14:17 Green Bay Packers NFL | GB +3.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-04 | New York Giants 36:24 Arizona Cardinals NFL | ARI -2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-04 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14:17 Green Bay Packers NFL | GB -2.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-04 | WAS Commanders 13:30 IND Colts NFL | IND -3.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-04 | Arizona 34:7 Cincinnati NCAAF | Over 56.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-04 | Arizona 34:7 Cincinnati NCAAF | ARIZ -5.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-04 | South Florida Bulls 13:17 Temple Owls NCAAF | Temple wins | Won |
| 2026-10-03 | TCU Horned Frogs 10:17 BYU Cougars NCAAF | BYU +7.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-03 | Georgia State Panthers 42:10 Old Dominion Monarchs NCAAF | Georgia St. wins | Won |
| 2026-10-03 | Idaho Vandals 35:34 Montana State Bobcats NCAAF | Under 66.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-02 | Virginia Tech Hokies 33:35 Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC (Pittsburgh) NCAAF | VT +3.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-26 | Michigan Wolverines 19:20 Iowa Hawkeyes NCAAF | MICH -2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-26 | Michigan Wolverines 19:20 Iowa Hawkeyes NCAAF | IOWA -1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-26 | California Golden Bears 10:24 Clemson Tigers NCAAF | 1H Under 27.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-25 | Temple Owls 17:21 Army Black Knights NCAAF | Temple wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-25 | Temple Owls 17:21 Army Black Knights NCAAF | 1H Under 27.5 | Won |