Kalshi · Football
past.bug is a World Cup pro on Kalshi: 43 picks, 60.5% win rate, $885 profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 60 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 60 have settled: 27 won, 33 lost, 45.0% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Cup | 45 | 45 | 18 | 40.0% |
| Club Friendlies | 6 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% |
| MLB | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| Brasileiro Serie A | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Eredivisie | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| MLS | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
past.bug mainly predicts World Cup: 45 of the last 60 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 60.5% hit rate over 43 orders, P&L $885, ROI 39.7%. In World Cup, 18 of 45 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-08-09 20:04 UTC+0. Method: methodology
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Palmeiras 0:0 S.C. Internacional (SC Internacional) Brasileiro Serie A | Palmeiras vs Internacional Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-09 | New York Yankees 1:2 Atlanta Braves MLB | Atlanta vs New York Y Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-09 | US Lecce 1:0 Monopoli Club Friendlies | Lecce vs Monopoli Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-09 | Cruzeiro E.C. (Cruzeiro) 3:1 Mirassol Futebol Clube (Mirassol FC) Brasileiro Serie A | Cruzeiro vs Mirassol Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-09 | Zwolle 0:2 AFC Ajax Eredivisie | Zwolle vs Ajax Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-09 | Liverpool F.C. (Liverpool FC) 2:3 AS Monaco FC Club Friendlies | Liverpool vs Monaco Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-09 | Manchester City F.C. (Manchester City FC) 3:1 Atletico Club Friendlies | Manchester City vs Atletico Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-08 | New England 0:2 Houston MLS | New England vs Houston Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-08 | New York Yankees 5:4 Atlanta Braves MLB | Atlanta vs New York Y Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-08 | Astorga 2:2 Deportivo Fabril Club Friendlies | Astorga vs Deportivo Fabril Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-08 | Galatasaray S.K. (Galatasaray) 1:2 Villarreal CF Club Friendlies | Galatasaray vs Villarreal Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-08 | Ferencvárosi TC (Ferencvarosi) 1:2 Real Madrid Club Friendlies | Ferencvarosi vs Real Madrid Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-10 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 2:1 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | Spain vs Belgium: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-09 | Cincinnati 0:1 Philadelphia MLB | Philadelphia vs Cincinnati Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-04 | Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) 1:0 Ghana men's national football team (Ghana) FIFA World Cup | Colombia vs Ghana: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-03 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 1:1 Cape Verde men's national football team (Cape Verde) FIFA World Cup | Over 2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-03 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 1:1 Cape Verde men's national football team (Cape Verde) FIFA World Cup | Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-03 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 1:1 Cape Verde men's national football team (Cape Verde) FIFA World Cup | Lautaro Martinez: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-03 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 1:1 Cape Verde men's national football team (Cape Verde) FIFA World Cup | Julian Alvarez: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-03 | Australia men's national soccer team (Australia) 1:1 Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) FIFA World Cup | Australia vs Egypt: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-03 | Australia men's national soccer team (Australia) 1:1 Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) FIFA World Cup | Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-02 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 2:1 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-07-02 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 3:0 Austria men's national football team (Austria) FIFA World Cup | Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-06-28 | Jordan men's national football team (Jordan) 1:3 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | Julian Alvarez: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-06-28 | Jordan men's national football team (Jordan) 1:3 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-06-27 | Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) 0:0 Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) FIFA World Cup | Luis Diaz: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-06-27 | Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) 0:0 Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) FIFA World Cup | Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-06-27 | Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) 0:0 Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) FIFA World Cup | Over 0.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-27 | Panama men's national football team (Panama) 0:2 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Jude Bellingham: score or assist | Won |
| 2026-06-27 | Panama men's national football team (Panama) 0:2 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Harry Kane: 2+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-06-27 | Panama men's national football team (Panama) 0:2 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | ENG -1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-27 | Panama men's national football team (Panama) 0:2 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Over 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-26 | Cape Verde men's national football team (Cape Verde) 0:0 Saudi Arabia men's national football team (Saudi Arabia) FIFA World Cup | Over 1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-26 | Uruguay men's national football team (Uruguay) 0:1 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | Over 2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-26 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 1:4 France FIFA World Cup | Kylian Mbappe: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-06-26 | Senegal men's national association football team (Senegal) 5:0 Iraq men's national football team (Iraq) FIFA World Cup | Over 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-26 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 1:4 France FIFA World Cup | Over 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-26 | Senegal men's national association football team (Senegal) 5:0 Iraq men's national football team (Iraq) FIFA World Cup | SEN -1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-26 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 1:4 France FIFA World Cup | Over 3.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-26 | Turkiye 3:2 USA FIFA World Cup | Turkiye vs USA Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-26 | Turkiye 3:2 USA FIFA World Cup | Turkiye vs USA Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | Tunisia men's national football team (Tunisia) 1:3 Netherlands FIFA World Cup | NED -2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | Japan men's national football team (Japan) 1:1 Sweden men's national football team (Sweden) FIFA World Cup | Over 2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | Ecuador men's national football team (Ecuador) 2:1 Germany FIFA World Cup | Ecuador vs Germany Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | Detroit 0:8 Houston MLB | Houston vs Detroit Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | San Francisco 6:9 Athletics MLB | A's vs San Francisco Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | Ecuador men's national football team (Ecuador) 2:1 Germany FIFA World Cup | Kai Havertz: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | Curaçao men's national football team (Curaçao) 0:2 Ivory Coast men's national football team (Ivory Coast) FIFA World Cup | Over 2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | Ecuador men's national football team (Ecuador) 2:1 Germany FIFA World Cup | Over 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-25 | South Africa men's national association football team (South Africa) 1:0 South Korea men's national football team (Korea Republic) FIFA World Cup | South Africa vs Korea Republic Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | Czechia men's national football team (Czechia) 0:3 Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) FIFA World Cup | Czechia vs Mexico Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-24 | Scotland men's national football team (Scotland) 0:3 Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) FIFA World Cup | Neymar: score or assist | Lost |
| 2026-06-24 | Scotland men's national football team (Scotland) 0:3 Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) FIFA World Cup | BRA -1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-24 | Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) 4:2 Haiti men's national football team (Haiti) FIFA World Cup | MAR -1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-24 | Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) 2:1 Canadian men's national soccer team (Canada) FIFA World Cup | Switzerland vs Canada Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-24 | Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) 2:1 Canadian men's national soccer team (Canada) FIFA World Cup | Over 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-24 | Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) 1:0 DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) FIFA World Cup | Luis Diaz: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-06-24 | Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) 1:0 DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) FIFA World Cup | Colombia vs Congo DR Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-24 | Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) 1:0 DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) FIFA World Cup | Luis Suarez: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-06-24 | Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) 1:0 DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) FIFA World Cup | Colombia vs Congo DR Winner | Won |