Kalshi · Baseball
firm.toys is a MLB pro on Kalshi: 45 picks, 75.6% win rate, $380 profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 60 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 60 have settled: 46 won, 14 lost, 76.7% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 39 | 39 | 31 | 79.5% |
| NCAAF | 9 | 9 | 7 | 77.8% |
| WNBA | 5 | 5 | 4 | 80.0% |
| NFL | 3 | 3 | 1 | — |
| Japan NPB | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Bundesliga | 1 | 1 | 0 | — |
firm.toys mainly predicts MLB: 39 of the last 60 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 75.6% hit rate over 45 orders, P&L $380, ROI 14.9%. In MLB, 31 of 39 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-10-09 19:33 UTC+0. Method: methodology
LWWLW
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Borussia Dortmund (Dortmund) 2:2 Bremen Bundesliga | Dortmund wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-09 | Alabama State Hornets 27:28 Florida A&M Rattlers NCAAF | Under 61.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-09 | Alabama State Hornets 27:28 Florida A&M Rattlers NCAAF | ALST +2.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-09 | Alabama State Hornets 27:28 Florida A&M Rattlers NCAAF | Under 49.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-09 | Chicago White Sox 5:9 Cleveland Guardians MLB | Under 13.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-07 | San Diego Padres 4:3 Milwaukee Brewers MLB | San Diego wins | Won |
| 2026-10-07 | San Diego Padres 4:3 Milwaukee Brewers MLB | F5 MIL +1.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-28 | Denver Broncos 30:26 Los Angeles Rams NFL | Los Angeles R wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-26 | California Golden Bears 10:24 Clemson Tigers NCAAF | California wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-25 | Los Angeles Dodgers 2:4 San Diego MLB | Under 6.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-24 | Chicago Cubs 2:1 Miami MLB | Miami wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-24 | Seattle 6:5 Houston MLB | Houston wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-24 | Los Angeles Dodgers 1:5 San Diego MLB | SD -1.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-23 | San Francisco 2:4 Minnesota MLB | Under 8.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-23 | Los Angeles Dodgers 7:0 San Diego MLB | Under 8.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-23 | San Francisco 2:3 Minnesota MLB | Under 5.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-23 | New York Yankees 1:6 Tampa Bay MLB | Under 7.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-18 | Los Angeles Angels 5:4 Minnesota MLB | Los Angeles A wins | Won |
| 2026-09-17 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC (Pittsburgh) 7:4 Milwaukee MLB | Pittsburgh wins | Won |
| 2026-09-07 | Los Angeles Dodgers 7:5 Washington Nationals MLB | Under 12.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-07 | Los Angeles Dodgers 7:5 Washington Nationals MLB | Over 9.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-06 | California Golden Bears 24:45 UCLA Bruins NCAAF | UCLA wins | Won |
| 2026-09-06 | California Golden Bears 24:45 UCLA Bruins NCAAF | CAL +7.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-06 | LSU Tigers 51:10 Clemson Tigers NCAAF | LSU +54.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-05 | San Diego Padres 3:2 New York Yankees MLB | NYY -1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-05 | Eastern Michigan Eagles 21:27 San Jose St. NCAAF | EMU +7.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-03 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights 21:37 Massachusetts Minutemen NCAAF | RUTG +17.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-03 | Cleveland Guardians 3:6 Toronto Blue Jays MLB | Under 9.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-03 | Houston Astros 6:2 Chicago WS MLB | Under 8.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-03 | Cleveland Guardians 3:6 Toronto Blue Jays MLB | Toronto wins | Won |
| 2026-09-03 | Pittsburgh Pirates 5:2 San Francisco Giants MLB | Under 6.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-03 | Los Angeles Dodgers 6:8 St. Louis Cardinals MLB | St. Louis wins | Won |
| 2026-09-03 | Los Angeles Dodgers 6:8 St. Louis Cardinals MLB | STL +1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-02 | Los Angeles Dodgers 8:13 St. Louis Cardinals MLB | Over 18.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-23 | Manchester City F.C. (Manchester City FC) 2:1 AFC Bournemouth Premier League | both teams score | Won |
| 2026-08-23 | Arizona Cardinals 13:34 Dallas Cowboys NFL | DAL -2.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-23 | San Diego Padres 7:5 Minnesota Twins MLB | Under 12.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-21 | Baltimore Orioles 1:6 New York Yankees MLB | New York Y vs Baltimore Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-19 | Chicago Cubs 4:3 Chicago WS MLB | CWS +1.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-18 | Golden State Valkyries 78:70 Dallas Wings WNBA | GS +20.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-17 | Houston Astros 2:3 Seattle Mariners MLB | Seattle vs Houston Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-16 | Atlanta Dream 91:95 Indiana Fever WNBA | IND -1.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-16 | Toronto Blue Jays 3:4 New York Yankees MLB | Under 4.5 | Lost |
| 2026-08-13 | Toronto Blue Jays 0:7 Boston Red Sox MLB | BOS -2.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-13 | New York Yankees 0:1 Seattle Mariners MLB | SEA +2.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-13 | Fukuoka Hawks 3:4 Chiba Lotte Marines Japan NPB | Chiba Lotte Marines vs Fukuoka Hawks winner | Won |
| 2026-08-13 | Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters 8:2 Saitama Seibu Lions Japan NPB | Saitama Seibu Lions vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters winner | Won |
| 2026-08-12 | Las Vegas Aces 86:76 Washington Mystics WNBA | Washington vs Las Vegas women's Pro Basketball game: Las Vegas wins | Won |
| 2026-08-10 | San Diego Padres 7:2 Houston Astros MLB | HOU +1.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-09 | Seattle Mariners 1:4 Tampa Bay Rays MLB | Tampa Bay vs Seattle Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-09 | Philadelphia Phillies 7:6 Toronto Blue Jays MLB | Under 7.5 | Lost |
| 2026-08-09 | Seattle Mariners 2:3 Tampa Bay Rays MLB | Under 5.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-07 | Arizona Diamondbacks 1:5 San Diego Padres MLB | Under 6.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-07 | Arizona Cardinals 30:33 Carolina Panthers NFL | Arizona to win | Lost |
| 2026-08-07 | Indiana Fever 84:86 Las Vegas Aces WNBA | IND +3.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-06 | Chicago Cubs 3:2 Toronto Blue Jays MLB | TOR +1.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-05 | Arizona Diamondbacks 4:9 San Diego Padres MLB | San Diego vs Arizona Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-03 | Golden State Valkyries 96:79 Toronto Tempo WNBA | Under 162.5 | Lost |
| 2026-08-02 | Cleveland Guardians 5:0 Arizona Diamondbacks MLB | Under 5.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-02 | Colorado Rockies 8:1 Kansas City Royals MLB | Under 9.5 | Won |