Kalshi · Football
fat.bird.flying is a World Cup pro on Kalshi: 44 picks, 63.6% win rate, $626 profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 60 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 60 have settled: 18 won, 42 lost, 30.0% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Cup | 51 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% |
| MLB | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| WNBA | 3 | 3 | 2 | — |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 1 | 0 | — |
fat.bird.flying mainly predicts World Cup: 51 of the last 60 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 63.6% hit rate over 44 orders, P&L $626, ROI 36.5%. In World Cup, 14 of 51 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-09-12 04:17 UTC+0. Method: methodology
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Athletics 6:5 Seattle Mariners MLB | A's wins | Won |
| 2026-09-04 | Los Angeles Dodgers 3:2 St. Louis Cardinals MLB | St. Louis wins | Lost |
| 2026-08-22 | Toronto Tempo 82:79 Portland Fire WNBA | Portland vs Toronto women's Pro Basketball game: Toronto wins | Won |
| 2026-07-22 | Bologna F.C. 1909 (Bologna FC 1909) 1:1 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (Heidenheim) Club Friendlies | Bologna vs Heidenheim Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-18 | France 4:6 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Kylian Mbappe: 2+ goals | Won |
| 2026-07-18 | France 4:6 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Desire Doue: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-18 | France 4:6 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-07-18 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 0:0 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | Spain vs Argentina Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-18 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 0:0 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-18 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 0:0 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | Marc Cucurella: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-17 | France 4:6 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | France vs England: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-15 | England men's national association football team (England) 1:2 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | England vs Argentina Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-15 | England men's national association football team (England) 1:2 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-15 | England men's national association football team (England) 1:2 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | England vs Argentina: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-15 | England men's national association football team (England) 1:2 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | Harry Kane: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-15 | England men's national association football team (England) 1:2 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-15 | England men's national association football team (England) 1:2 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | England vs Argentina: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-14 | France 0:2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | Rodri: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-14 | France 0:2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | France vs Spain: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-14 | France 0:2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-14 | France 0:2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | Ousmane Dembele: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-14 | France 0:2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | Michael Olise: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-14 | France 0:2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | Desire Doue: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-14 | France 0:2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | Kylian Mbappe: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-13 | Las Vegas Aces 75:109 Indiana Fever WNBA | Indiana vs Las Vegas winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-13 | Las Vegas Aces 75:109 Indiana Fever WNBA | Indiana vs Las Vegas winner | Won |
| 2026-07-12 | France 0:2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | France vs Spain: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-11 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 1:1 Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) FIFA World Cup | Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-11 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 1:1 Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) FIFA World Cup | Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-11 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 1:1 Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) FIFA World Cup | Julian Alvarez: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-07-11 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 1:1 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Norway vs England: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-11 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 1:1 Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) FIFA World Cup | Argentina vs Switzerland: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-11 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 1:1 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-07-11 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 1:1 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-11 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 1:1 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Harry Kane: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-10 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 2:1 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | Spain win in Regulation Time | Won |
| 2026-07-10 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 2:1 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | Spain vs Belgium: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-10 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 2:1 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | Spain vs Belgium: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-10 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 2:1 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-10 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 2:1 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-09 | France 2:0 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | William Saliba: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-09 | France 2:0 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-09 | France 2:0 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | Michael Olise: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-09 | France 2:0 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | Ousmane Dembele: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-07-09 | France 2:0 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | France vs Morocco: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-08 | France 2:0 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | France vs Morocco: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-08 | Miami 2:0 Seattle MLB | Seattle vs Miami Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-08 | Miami 2:0 Seattle MLB | Seattle vs Miami Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-08 | Washington 3:6 Houston MLB | Houston vs Washington Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-07 | Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) 0:0 Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) FIFA World Cup | Ardon Jashari: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-07 | Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) 0:0 Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) FIFA World Cup | Breel Embolo: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-07 | Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) 0:0 Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) FIFA World Cup | Luis Diaz: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-07 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 1:1 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Norway vs England: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-07 | Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) 0:0 Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) FIFA World Cup | Switzerland vs Colombia: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-07 | Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) 0:0 Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) FIFA World Cup | Switzerland vs Colombia: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-07 | Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) 0:0 Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) FIFA World Cup | Luis Suarez: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-07 | Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) 0:0 Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) FIFA World Cup | Daniel Munoz: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-07 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 3:2 Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) FIFA World Cup | Argentina vs Egypt Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-07 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 3:2 Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) FIFA World Cup | Julian Alvarez: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-07 | USA 1:4 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | Lost |