Kalshi · Football
bond.pie is a World Cup pro on Kalshi: 30 picks, 66.7% win rate, $838 profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 54 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 54 have settled: 30 won, 24 lost, 55.6% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Cup | 35 | 35 | 20 | 57.1% |
| MLB | 13 | 13 | 7 | 53.8% |
| NBA | 3 | 3 | 2 | — |
| NCAAF | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| NBA Summer League | 1 | 1 | 0 | — |
bond.pie mainly predicts World Cup: 35 of the last 54 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 66.7% hit rate over 30 orders, P&L $838, ROI 36.7%. In World Cup, 20 of 35 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-10-03 21:30 UTC+0. Method: methodology
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | South Carolina Gamecocks 34:35 Kentucky Wildcats NCAAF | Kentucky wins | Won |
| 2026-10-03 | Northwestern Wildcats 34:13 Penn St. NCAAF | Team Over 13.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-15 | Philadelphia 92:99 Orlando NBA Summer League | Philadelphia to win | Lost |
| 2026-07-15 | England men's national association football team (England) 1:2 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | England vs Argentina Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-10 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 2:1 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | Under 3.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-10 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 2:1 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | 1H Under 1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-09 | Texas 7:6 Los Angeles Angels MLB | Los Angeles A vs Texas First Inning Run | Lost |
| 2026-07-09 | Detroit 4:1 Athletics MLB | A's vs Detroit First Inning Run | Won |
| 2026-07-09 | Minnesota 2:5 Cleveland MLB | Cleveland vs Minnesota First Inning Run | Won |
| 2026-07-09 | Texas 1:13 Los Angeles Angels MLB | Los Angeles A vs Texas First Inning Run | Lost |
| 2026-07-08 | Chicago WS 1:2 Boston MLB | Boston vs Chicago WS First Inning Run | Won |
| 2026-07-07 | San Diego 0:8 Arizona Diamondbacks MLB | Arizona vs San Diego First Inning Run | Lost |
| 2026-07-06 | USA 1:4 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | USA vs Belgium: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-06 | Kansas City 15:1 Philadelphia MLB | Philadelphia vs Kansas City First Inning Run | Lost |
| 2026-07-06 | Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) 2:3 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | both teams score | Won |
| 2026-07-05 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 1:2 Norway men's national association football team (Norway) FIFA World Cup | Brazil vs Norway Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-05 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 1:2 Norway men's national association football team (Norway) FIFA World Cup | 1H Under 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-05 | Chicago Cubs 6:4 St. Louis MLB | St. Louis vs Chicago C First Inning Run | Lost |
| 2026-07-05 | Cincinnati 3:2 Baltimore MLB | Baltimore vs Cincinnati First Inning Run | Won |
| 2026-07-05 | Atlanta 9:10 New York Mets MLB | New York M vs Atlanta First Inning Run | Lost |
| 2026-07-05 | Los Angeles Dodgers 3:0 San Diego MLB | San Diego vs Los Angeles D First Inning Run | Won |
| 2026-07-05 | Athletics 2:7 Miami MLB | Miami vs A's First Inning Run | Won |
| 2026-07-04 | Cleveland 4:3 Chicago WS MLB | Chicago WS vs Cleveland Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-03 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 1:1 Cape Verde men's national football team (Cape Verde) FIFA World Cup | Thiago Almada: First Goalscorer | Lost |
| 2026-07-03 | Australia men's national soccer team (Australia) 1:1 Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) FIFA World Cup | Australia vs Egypt: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-03 | Australia men's national soccer team (Australia) 1:1 Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) FIFA World Cup | either team advance in Penalty Shootout | Won |
| 2026-07-03 | Australia men's national soccer team (Australia) 1:1 Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) FIFA World Cup | Australia vs Egypt Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-03 | Australia men's national soccer team (Australia) 1:1 Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) FIFA World Cup | 1H Under 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-03 | Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) 2:0 Algeria men's national football team (Algeria) FIFA World Cup | 1H Under 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-03 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 2:1 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | Under 2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-03 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 2:1 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-06-30 | Netherlands 1:1 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | Netherlands vs Morocco: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-06-26 | Turkiye 3:2 USA FIFA World Cup | 1H Under 3.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-26 | Turkiye 3:2 USA FIFA World Cup | 1H Under 2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | Curaçao men's national football team (Curaçao) 0:2 Ivory Coast men's national football team (Ivory Coast) FIFA World Cup | 1H Under 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-24 | Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) 1:0 DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) FIFA World Cup | Colombia vs Congo DR Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-23 | England men's national association football team (England) 0:0 Ghana men's national football team (Ghana) FIFA World Cup | Jude Bellingham: First Goalscorer | Lost |
| 2026-06-23 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 5:0 Uzbekistan men's national football team (Uzbekistan) FIFA World Cup | Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-06-21 | Uruguay men's national football team (Uruguay) 2:2 Cape Verde men's national football team (Cape Verde) FIFA World Cup | Under 4.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-19 | USA 2:0 Australia men's national soccer team (Australia) FIFA World Cup | Team Over 0.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-19 | USA 2:0 Australia men's national soccer team (Australia) FIFA World Cup | 1H Under 1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-17 | Ghana men's national football team (Ghana) 1:0 Panama men's national football team (Panama) FIFA World Cup | Under 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-17 | Austria men's national football team (Austria) 3:1 Jordan men's national football team (Jordan) FIFA World Cup | Austria vs Jordan Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-16 | France 3:1 Senegal men's national association football team (Senegal) FIFA World Cup | Under 1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-15 | Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) 1:1 Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) FIFA World Cup | Team Under 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-15 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 0:0 Cape Verde men's national football team (Cape Verde) FIFA World Cup | Under 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-15 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 0:0 Cape Verde men's national football team (Cape Verde) FIFA World Cup | Spain vs Cape Verde Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-15 | Sweden men's national football team (Sweden) 5:1 Tunisia men's national football team (Tunisia) FIFA World Cup | Alexander Isak: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-06-14 | Netherlands 2:2 Japan men's national football team (Japan) FIFA World Cup | Team Under 1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-14 | Netherlands 2:2 Japan men's national football team (Japan) FIFA World Cup | Team Under 1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-14 | San Antonio 90:94 New NBA | Game 5: New York at San Antonio Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-13 | USA 4:1 Paraguay men's national football team (Paraguay) FIFA World Cup | USA vs Paraguay Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-11 | New 107:106 San Antonio NBA | Game 4: San Antonio at New York Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-09 | New 111:115 San Antonio NBA | Game 3: San Antonio at New York Winner | Won |