Kalshi · Football
thick.spy is a World Cup pro on Kalshi: 31 picks, 64.5% win rate, $940 profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 60 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 60 have settled: 36 won, 24 lost, 60.0% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Cup | 36 | 36 | 20 | 55.6% |
| MLB | 6 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% |
| Premier League | 6 | 6 | 5 | 83.3% |
| NFL | 5 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| NBA | 3 | 3 | 2 | — |
| Nations League | 3 | 3 | 2 | — |
thick.spy mainly predicts World Cup: 36 of the last 60 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 64.5% hit rate over 31 orders, P&L $940, ROI 22.9%. In World Cup, 20 of 36 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-10-28 05:03 UTC+0. Method: methodology
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | Los Angeles Lakers 129:136 Portland Trail Blazers NBA | Los Angeles L wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-22 | Orlando Magic 125:132 Atlanta Hawks NBA | Atlanta wins | Won |
| 2026-10-21 | Virginia Cavaliers 16:19 Duke Blue Devils NCAAF | Virginia wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-20 | New York Knicks 100:106 Philadelphia 76ers NBA | Philadelphia wins | Won |
| 2026-09-30 | Houston Astros 3:7 Chicago White Sox MLB | Chicago WS wins | Won |
| 2026-09-30 | Houston Astros 3:7 Chicago White Sox MLB | F5 HOU +2.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-30 | Houston Astros 3:7 Chicago White Sox MLB | Houston wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-29 | Houston Astros 3:6 Chicago White Sox MLB | Houston wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-29 | Scotland men's national football team (Scotland) 0:3 Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) Nations League | Team Over 0.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-29 | Scotland men's national football team (Scotland) 0:3 Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) Nations League | Switzerland wins | Won |
| 2026-09-29 | Chicago Bears 27:7 Philadelphia Eagles NFL | Case Keenum: 275+ passing yards | Lost |
| 2026-09-27 | Dallas Cowboys 31:34 Baltimore Ravens NFL | Baltimore wins | Won |
| 2026-09-26 | San Francisco 3:4 Los Angeles Dodgers MLB | Los Angeles D wins | Won |
| 2026-09-26 | England men's national association football team (England) 2:3 Spain men's national football team (Spain) Nations League | Over 4.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-13 | Carolina Panthers 37:59 Chicago Bears NFL | Chicago vs Carolina Pro Football game: Chicago wins | Won |
| 2026-09-11 | Los Angeles R 7:27 San Francisco NFL | San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game: Los Angeles R wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-10 | Manchester United F.C. (Manchester United FC) 0:1 Manchester City F.C. (Manchester City FC) Premier League | Manchester City wins | Won |
| 2026-09-09 | Seattle Seahawks 13:10 New England Patriots NFL | New England vs Seattle Pro Football game: Seattle wins | Won |
| 2026-09-06 | Arsenal F.C. (Arsenal FC) 2:1 Chelsea F.C. (Chelsea FC) Premier League | Arsenal wins | Won |
| 2026-09-05 | Manchester City F.C. (Manchester City FC) 1:0 Coventry City F.C. (Coventry) Premier League | Manchester City wins | Won |
| 2026-09-04 | Ipswich Town F.C. (Ipswich Town FC) 0:2 Liverpool F.C. (Liverpool FC) Premier League | Liverpool wins | Won |
| 2026-08-30 | Detroit Tigers 1:6 Los Angeles Dodgers MLB | Los Angeles D wins | Won |
| 2026-08-30 | Chelsea F.C. (Chelsea FC) 4:3 Brighton & Hove Albion F.C. (Brighton) Premier League | Chelsea vs Brighton Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-28 | Crystal Palace F.C. (Crystal Palace FC) 1:4 Manchester City F.C. (Manchester City FC) Premier League | Crystal Palace vs Manchester City Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-18 | France 4:6 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Ousmane Dembele: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-07-18 | France 4:6 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Kylian Mbappe: 2+ goals | Won |
| 2026-07-18 | France 4:6 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Kylian Mbappe: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-07-18 | France 4:6 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Over 5.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-18 | France 4:6 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | France vs England: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-14 | France 0:2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | France vs Spain: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-14 | France 0:2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | France vs Spain: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-12 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 1:1 Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) FIFA World Cup | Argentina vs Switzerland: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-11 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 1:1 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Norway vs England: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-11 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 1:1 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Norway vs England: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-07 | USA 1:4 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | BEL -2.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-06 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 0:1 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | Portugal vs Spain: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-06 | Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) 2:3 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Over 3.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-06 | Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) 2:3 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Mexico vs England: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-05 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 1:2 Norway men's national association football team (Norway) FIFA World Cup | Brazil vs Norway: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-04 | Paraguay men's national football team (Paraguay) 0:1 France FIFA World Cup | Over 0.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-03 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 1:1 Cape Verde men's national football team (Cape Verde) FIFA World Cup | Argentina vs Cape Verde: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-03 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 1:1 Cape Verde men's national football team (Cape Verde) FIFA World Cup | Over 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-03 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 2:1 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | Portugal win the 2nd Half | Won |
| 2026-07-03 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 2:1 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | Portugal vs Croatia: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-02 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 2:1 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-07-02 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 3:0 Austria men's national football team (Austria) FIFA World Cup | Over 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-01 | Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) 2:2 Senegal men's national association football team (Senegal) FIFA World Cup | Belgium vs Senegal: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-01 | England men's national association football team (England) 2:1 DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) FIFA World Cup | England vs Congo DR: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-01 | England men's national association football team (England) 2:1 DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) FIFA World Cup | ENG -1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-30 | Netherlands 1:1 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | Netherlands vs Morocco: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-06-29 | Germany 1:1 Paraguay men's national football team (Paraguay) FIFA World Cup | Germany vs Paraguay: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-06-29 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 2:1 Japan men's national football team (Japan) FIFA World Cup | Brazil vs Japan: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-06-28 | Jordan men's national football team (Jordan) 1:3 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | Argentina: 8+ corners | Lost |
| 2026-06-28 | Jordan men's national football team (Jordan) 1:3 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-06-28 | Jordan men's national football team (Jordan) 1:3 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-06-28 | Jordan men's national football team (Jordan) 1:3 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | ARG -2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-28 | DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) 3:1 Uzbekistan men's national football team (Uzbekistan) FIFA World Cup | Under 4.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-28 | DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) 3:1 Uzbekistan men's national football team (Uzbekistan) FIFA World Cup | COD +2.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-27 | Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) 0:0 Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) FIFA World Cup | Colombia vs Portugal Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-27 | Panama men's national football team (Panama) 0:2 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Panama vs England Winner | Won |