Kalshi · Baseball
mess.dawn is a MLB pro on Kalshi: 52 picks, 61.5% win rate, $23K profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 60 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 60 have settled: 39 won, 21 lost, 65.0% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 37 | 37 | 22 | 59.5% |
| NFL | 11 | 11 | 7 | 63.6% |
| NBA | 6 | 6 | 6 | 100.0% |
| NCAAF | 6 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% |
mess.dawn mainly predicts MLB: 37 of the last 60 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 61.5% hit rate over 52 orders, P&L $23K, ROI 32.3%. In MLB, 22 of 37 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-10-21 02:06 UTC+0. Method: methodology
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | San Antonio Spurs 104:116 Oklahoma City Thunder NBA | Under 231.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-21 | San Antonio Spurs 104:116 Oklahoma City Thunder NBA | Under 225.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-21 | San Antonio Spurs 104:116 Oklahoma City Thunder NBA | Under 229.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-20 | Delaware Blue Hens 61:38 Missouri State Bears NCAAF | Under 52.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-20 | New York Knicks 100:106 Philadelphia 76ers NBA | Under 228.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-20 | Detroit Pistons 121:113 Boston Celtics NBA | Over 222.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-20 | Detroit Pistons 121:113 Boston Celtics NBA | Detroit wins | Won |
| 2026-10-01 | San Diego Padres 4:1 Chicago Cubs MLB | San Diego wins | Won |
| 2026-10-01 | New York Yankees 9:2 Boston Red Sox MLB | Under 6.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-30 | New York Yankees 9:2 Boston Red Sox MLB | New York Y wins | Won |
| 2026-09-30 | Houston Astros 3:7 Chicago White Sox MLB | Chicago WS wins | Won |
| 2026-09-30 | Atlanta Braves 3:4 Philadelphia Phillies MLB | Under 7.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-29 | New York Yankees 9:0 Boston Red Sox MLB | NYY -1.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-29 | Houston Astros 3:6 Chicago White Sox MLB | Under 10.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-29 | Houston Astros 3:6 Chicago White Sox MLB | Under 9.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-29 | Houston Astros 3:6 Chicago White Sox MLB | Under 8.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-29 | Atlanta Braves 5:3 Philadelphia Phillies MLB | Under 7.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-29 | Atlanta Braves 5:3 Philadelphia Phillies MLB | Under 6.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-25 | Boston Red Sox 4:3 Chicago Cubs MLB | Under 6.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-24 | Chicago Cubs 2:1 Miami MLB | Over 5.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-24 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC (Pittsburgh) 2:1 St. Louis MLB | Under 6.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-24 | Los Angeles Dodgers 1:5 San Diego MLB | Under 4.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-23 | San Francisco 2:4 Minnesota MLB | Under 6.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-23 | Baltimore 4:2 Toronto MLB | Baltimore wins | Won |
| 2026-09-23 | Los Angeles Dodgers 7:0 San Diego MLB | Under 8.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-22 | Kansas City 11:14 Chicago WS MLB | Chicago WS wins | Won |
| 2026-09-22 | New York Yankees 2:0 Tampa Bay MLB | Under 6.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-19 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC (Pittsburgh) 6:5 Kansas City MLB | Kansas City wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-19 | Indiana Hoosiers 38:0 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers NCAAF | IND -44.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-19 | Oregon Ducks 84:0 Portland State Vikings NCAAF | ORE -75.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-19 | Oregon Ducks 84:0 Portland State Vikings NCAAF | ORE -72.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-18 | BUF Bills 41:31 DET Lions NFL | BUF +10.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-18 | BUF Bills 41:31 DET Lions NFL | BUF +14.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-16 | Minnesota Twins 5:4 New York Yankees MLB | NYY -1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates 1:5 Milwaukee Brewers MLB | MIL -1.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates 1:5 Milwaukee Brewers MLB | MIL -2.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-15 | Kansas City Chiefs 31:10 Denver Broncos NFL | Under 51.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-15 | Kansas City Chiefs 31:10 Denver Broncos NFL | Denver vs Kansas City Pro Football game: Denver wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-12 | Chicago Cubs 4:3 Pittsburgh Pirates MLB | CHC -1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-12 | Boston College Eagles 28:21 Rutgers Scarlet Knights NCAAF | Under 50.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-11 | Chicago Cubs 12:2 Pittsburgh Pirates MLB | CHC -2.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-05 | Cincinnati 34:15 Boston College Eagles NCAAF | Under 49.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-04 | Cleveland Guardians 7:6 Detroit Tigers MLB | Under 8.5 | Lost |
| 2026-08-28 | San Francisco Giants 6:1 Arizona Diamondbacks MLB | Arizona wins | Lost |
| 2026-08-26 | Miami Marlins 4:0 Boston Red Sox MLB | Boston wins | Lost |
| 2026-08-26 | Detroit Tigers 0:3 Tampa Bay Rays MLB | Tampa Bay wins | Won |
| 2026-08-25 | Seattle Mariners 9:2 Philadelphia Phillies MLB | Philadelphia wins | Lost |
| 2026-08-24 | Tennessee Titans 19:16 Seattle Seahawks NFL | Seattle vs Tennessee Pro Football game: SEA Seahawks wins | Lost |
| 2026-08-23 | Tennessee Titans 19:16 Seattle Seahawks NFL | TEN -4.5 | Lost |
| 2026-08-23 | Milwaukee Brewers 2:4 Atlanta Braves MLB | Atlanta wins | Won |
| 2026-08-23 | Arizona Diamondbacks 5:3 Cincinnati Reds MLB | Arizona wins | Won |
| 2026-08-23 | San Diego Padres 8:1 Minnesota Twins MLB | San Diego wins | Won |
| 2026-08-23 | Arizona Cardinals 13:34 Dallas Cowboys NFL | Under 52.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-23 | San Diego Padres 7:5 Minnesota Twins MLB | San Diego wins | Won |
| 2026-08-22 | Los Angeles R 34:0 New Orleans Pelicans (New Orleans) NFL | Under 36.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-22 | Miami Dolphins 3:26 New York Giants NFL | Under 36.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-22 | Los Angeles Dodgers 5:4 Pittsburgh Pirates MLB | Pittsburgh vs Los Angeles D Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-22 | Denver Nuggets (Denver) 13:33 Green Bay NFL | Under 40.5 | Lost |
| 2026-08-21 | Pittsburgh Steelers 0:17 New York Jets NFL | Under 38.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-21 | Milwaukee Brewers 2:1 Atlanta Braves MLB | Under 4.5 | Won |