Kalshi · Baseball
hard.hat is a MLB pro on Kalshi: 19 picks, 63.2% win rate, $444 profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 44 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 43 have settled: 25 won, 18 lost, 58.1% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 20 | 20 | 13 | 65.0% |
| NCAAF | 8 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% |
| Club Friendlies | 3 | 3 | 2 | — |
| Korea KBO | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Nations League | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| NFL | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
hard.hat mainly predicts MLB: 20 of the last 44 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 63.2% hit rate over 19 orders, P&L $444, ROI 25.7%. In MLB, 13 of 20 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-10-25 05:45 UTC+0. Method: methodology
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Utah Utes 21:13 Houston NCAAF | UTAH +6.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-24 | UCF Knights 39:31 BYU Cougars NCAAF | BYU wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-24 | Stanford Cardinal 31:28 NC St. NCAAF | STAN -5.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-23 | VfB Stuttgart 2:3 M´gladbach Bundesliga | M´gladbach wins | Won |
| 2026-10-06 | Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) 1:2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) Nations League | Tie is the result | Lost |
| 2026-10-06 | Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) 1:2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) Nations League | Spain wins | Won |
| 2026-10-03 | Northwestern Wildcats 34:13 Penn St. NCAAF | NW -13.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-02 | Virginia Tech Hokies 33:35 Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC (Pittsburgh) NCAAF | VT +14.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-24 | Colorado 8:12 Arizona Diamondbacks MLB | AZ -9.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-24 | Texas 3:1 New York Mets MLB | TEX -1.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-23 | Baltimore 4:2 Toronto MLB | Over 4.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-23 | Detroit 2:4 Washington MLB | Over 3.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-23 | New York Yankees 1:6 Tampa Bay MLB | Tampa Bay wins | Won |
| 2026-09-20 | Tennessee Titans 20:24 PHI Eagles NFL | Philadelphia wins | Won |
| 2026-09-20 | San Jose St. 10:26 Fresno State Bulldogs NCAAF | San Jose St. wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-20 | Ole Miss Rebels 32:24 LSU Tigers NCAAF | MISS -6.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-19 | Clemson Tigers 28:20 North Carolina Tar Heels NCAAF | UNC -6.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-18 | Cincinnati 6:4 Chicago Cubs MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Lost |
| 2026-09-16 | Cincinnati Reds 6:2 Los Angeles Dodgers MLB | LAD -1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-16 | St. Louis Cardinals 5:6 San Francisco Giants MLB | San Francisco wins | Won |
| 2026-09-16 | Cleveland Guardians 6:3 Chicago WS MLB | Cleveland wins | Won |
| 2026-09-12 | San Francisco Giants 5:7 San Diego Padres MLB | SD +1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-10 | Los Angeles Dodgers 14:1 Cincinnati Reds MLB | LAD -7.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-10 | Seattle Seahawks 13:10 New England Patriots NFL | New England vs Seattle Pro Football game: New England wins | Lost |
| 2026-08-21 | SSG Landers 3:3 KT Wiz Korea KBO | KT Wiz vs SSG Landers winner | Pending |
| 2026-08-18 | Colorado Rockies 5:11 Los Angeles Dodgers MLB | Los Angeles D vs Colorado Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-18 | Chicago Cubs 7:5 Chicago WS MLB | Chicago WS vs Chicago C Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-18 | Cincinnati Reds 6:5 St. Louis Cardinals MLB | St. Louis vs Cincinnati Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-15 | Lotte Giants 8:5 NC Dinos Korea KBO | NC Dinos vs Lotte Giants winner | Won |
| 2026-08-13 | Los Angeles Angels 5:2 Texas Rangers MLB | Texas vs Los Angeles A Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-12 | Athletics 4:8 Tampa Bay Rays MLB | Tampa Bay vs A's Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-10 | Dep Maldonado 2:2 Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division | Dep Maldonado vs Racing Club Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-10 | Club Libertad (Libertad) 2:1 Trinidense APF Division de Honor | Libertad vs Trinidense Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-10 | Socuellamos 0:3 Villarrobledo Club Friendlies | Socuellamos vs Villarrobledo Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-10 | Socuellamos 0:3 Villarrobledo Club Friendlies | Socuellamos vs Villarrobledo Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-10 | America 3:1 Portland Fire (Portland) Leagues Cup | America vs Portland Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-09 | Milwaukee Brewers 4:3 Minnesota Twins MLB | Minnesota vs Milwaukee Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-06 | Chicago Cubs 3:2 Toronto Blue Jays MLB | Toronto vs Chicago C Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-05 | Houston Astros 4:5 Toronto Blue Jays MLB | Toronto vs Houston Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-04 | Jeju SK FC 1:2 FC Bayern Munich (Bayern Munich) Club Friendlies | Jeju SK vs Bayern Munich Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-03 | Los Angeles Dodgers 4:8 Boston Red Sox MLB | Boston vs Los Angeles D Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-02 | Shenzhen Peng City F.C. (Shenzhen Peng City) 2:0 Chongqing Tongliang Long F.C. (Chongqing Tonglianglong FC) Chinese Super League | Shenzhen Peng City vs Chongqing Tonglianglong FC Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-02 | Kiwoom Heroes 5:3 SSG Landers Korea KBO | SSG Landers vs Kiwoom Heroes winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-01 | San Luis 0:0 Tijuana de Caliente Liga MX | San Luis vs Tijuana de Caliente Winner | Won |