Kalshi · Baseball
frail.aardvark0616 is a MLB pro on Kalshi: 26 picks, 61.5% win rate, $625 profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 60 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 60 have settled: 34 won, 26 lost, 56.7% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 18 | 18 | 9 | 50.0% |
| Champions League | 7 | 7 | 6 | 85.7% |
| Premier League | 6 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% |
| La Liga | 6 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
| NCAAF | 6 | 6 | 5 | 83.3% |
| EuroCup | 2 | 2 | 0 | — |
frail.aardvark0616 mainly predicts MLB: 18 of the last 60 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 61.5% hit rate over 26 orders, P&L $625, ROI 38.4%. In MLB, 9 of 18 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-10-08 02:28 UTC+0. Method: methodology
LWWWL
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Chicago White Sox 5:9 Cleveland Guardians MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Lost |
| 2026-10-08 | San Diego Padres 1:3 Milwaukee Brewers MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Won |
| 2026-10-08 | New York Yankees 3:4 Tampa Bay Rays MLB | Under 6.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-07 | New York Yankees 3:4 Tampa Bay Rays MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Won |
| 2026-10-07 | Chicago White Sox 3:9 Cleveland Guardians MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Won |
| 2026-10-07 | Bàsquet Manresa (Basquet Manresa) 101:89 Ulm Basketball EuroCup | Ulm Basketball wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-07 | Aris Thessaloniki (BC Aris Thessaloniki) 93:80 CB San Pablo Burgos EuroCup | ARI +7.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-07 | Shenzhen Juniors FC 1:4 Guandong GZ-Power FC China League 1 | Both Teams To Score | Won |
| 2026-10-06 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 3:0 Benin men's national football team (Benin) Intl Friendlies | Lionel Messi scores first + Argentina wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-06 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 3:0 Benin men's national football team (Benin) Intl Friendlies | Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION 2:1 G2 ESL Pro League | Map 2: G2 | Won |
| 2026-09-25 | Kansas City 9:12 Cleveland MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Lost |
| 2026-09-20 | CHI Bears 3:9 MIN Vikings NFL | Chicago wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-20 | Fulham F.C. (Fulham FC) 1:1 Manchester United F.C. (Manchester United FC) Premier League | Fulham wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-20 | Atletico 2:1 Real Madrid La Liga | Real Madrid wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-20 | Atletico 2:1 Real Madrid La Liga | Tie is the result | Lost |
| 2026-09-20 | San Jose St. 10:26 Fresno State Bulldogs NCAAF | Under 36.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-19 | San Diego 7:6 Miami MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Won |
| 2026-09-19 | Alabama Crimson Tide 50:36 Florida State Seminoles NCAAF | ALA -14.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-19 | Sevilla FC 1:3 FC Barcelona La Liga | Over 3.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-18 | San Diego 8:2 Miami MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Won |
| 2026-09-18 | AS Monaco FC 2:1 R.C. Lens (Lens) Ligue 1 | Monaco wins | Won |
| 2026-09-18 | Los Angeles Angels 5:4 Minnesota MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Lost |
| 2026-09-17 | Texas 3:4 Boston MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Lost |
| 2026-09-17 | New York Mets 0:3 Philadelphia MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Won |
| 2026-09-17 | Real Betis Balompié (Real Betis) 1:0 Getafe CF La Liga | Under 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-17 | Juventus FC 5:0 N.E.C. (Nijmegen) Europa League | Team Over 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-16 | Arizona Diamondbacks 3:4 Miami Marlins MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Won |
| 2026-09-16 | Pittsburgh Pirates 4:5 Milwaukee Brewers MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Won |
| 2026-09-15 | Deportivo Alavés (Alaves) 0:1 Valencia La Liga | Final score Draw 0-0 | Lost |
| 2026-09-15 | Deportivo Alavés (Alaves) 0:1 Valencia La Liga | Alaves wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-14 | Inter Milan (Inter) 5:3 Udinese Calcio Serie A | Both Teams To Score | Won |
| 2026-09-14 | New York Mets 1:2 Baltimore MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Won |
| 2026-09-13 | San Francisco Giants 4:6 San Diego Padres MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Lost |
| 2026-09-13 | Manchester United F.C. (Manchester United FC) 0:1 Manchester City F.C. (Manchester City FC) Premier League | Final score Draw 0-0 | Lost |
| 2026-09-13 | Manchester United F.C. (Manchester United FC) 0:1 Manchester City F.C. (Manchester City FC) Premier League | Manchester City wins | Won |
| 2026-09-13 | Manchester United F.C. (Manchester United FC) 0:1 Manchester City F.C. (Manchester City FC) Premier League | Both Teams To Score | Lost |
| 2026-09-12 | Atlanta Braves 12:2 Philadelphia Phillies MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Lost |
| 2026-09-12 | AFC Bournemouth 2:2 Brentford F.C. (Brentford FC) Premier League | Both Teams To Score | Won |
| 2026-09-12 | San Francisco Giants 5:7 San Diego Padres MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Lost |
| 2026-09-12 | St. Louis Cardinals 7:3 Chicago WS MLB | 1st inning: Over 0.5 runs | Lost |
| 2026-09-11 | Kansas Jayhawks 21:38 Missouri Tigers NCAAF | Over 51.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-11 | Emmen 1:2 De Graafschap Eerste Divisie | Emmen wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-11 | Kansas Jayhawks 21:38 Missouri Tigers NCAAF | MIZZ -4.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-10 | FC Bayern Munich (Bayern Munich) 5:0 Bodoe/Glimt Champions League | Bayern Munich wins | Won |
| 2026-09-10 | Fenerbahçe Istanbul (Fenerbahce) 1:1 AS Roma Champions League | Both Teams To Score | Won |
| 2026-09-10 | TYLOO 0:2 Alliance FISSURE Playground | Alliance wins | Won |
| 2026-09-09 | SSC Napoli (Napoli) 0:1 Arsenal F.C. (Arsenal FC) Champions League | Arsenal wins | Won |
| 2026-09-09 | Liverpool F.C. (Liverpool FC) 2:1 Atletico Champions League | Both Teams To Score | Won |
| 2026-09-08 | TheMongolz 1:2 MIBR CS2 | Map 1: MIBR | Lost |
| 2026-09-08 | Real Madrid 2:1 Inter Milan (Inter) Champions League | Real Madrid wins | Won |
| 2026-09-08 | Borussia Dortmund (Dortmund) 3:2 Villarreal CF Champions League | Dortmund wins | Won |
| 2026-09-07 | Be`er Sheva 1:4 Maccabi Tel Aviv F.C. (Maccabi Tel Aviv FC) Israeli Premier League | Both Teams To Score | Won |
| 2026-09-06 | Arsenal F.C. (Arsenal FC) 2:1 Chelsea F.C. (Chelsea FC) Premier League | Both Teams To Score | Won |
| 2026-09-05 | Duke Blue Devils 17:3 Tulane Green Wave NCAAF | Duke wins | Won |
| 2026-09-03 | Utah Utes 66:14 Idaho Vandals NCAAF | UTAH -33.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-01 | Al Hilal SFC (Al Hilal) 3:0 Al Ahli Saudi Club Saudi Pro League | Both Teams To Score | Lost |
| 2026-08-27 | Maccabi Tel Aviv F.C. (Maccabi Tel Aviv FC) 1:1 FC Lugano Conference League | Reg Time: Both Teams To Score | Won |
| 2026-08-26 | Viking FK 3:1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb (Dinamo Zagreb) Champions League | Reg Time: Dinamo Zagreb | Lost |
| 2026-08-24 | Tennessee Titans 19:16 Seattle Seahawks NFL | Under 35.5 | Won |