Kalshi · Football
reasonable.alpaca5414 is a La Liga pro on Kalshi: 23 picks, 73.9% win rate, $322 profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 60 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 60 have settled: 31 won, 29 lost, 51.7% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Liga | 15 | 15 | 12 | 80.0% |
| Leagues Cup | 14 | 14 | 9 | 64.3% |
| MLS | 11 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% |
| Intl Friendlies | 4 | 4 | 2 | — |
| Liga MX | 3 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Club Friendlies | 3 | 3 | 1 | — |
reasonable.alpaca5414 mainly predicts La Liga: 15 of the last 60 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 73.9% hit rate over 23 orders, P&L $322, ROI 65.6%. In La Liga, 12 of 15 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-10-15 01:42 UTC+0. Method: methodology
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Real Salt Lake (Salt Lake) 1:1 San Jose Earthquakes (San Jose) MLS | San Jose wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-13 | Viking FK 3:3 FC Bayern Munich (Bayern Munich) Champions League | Viking wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-06 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 3:0 Benin men's national football team (Benin) Intl Friendlies | Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-10-06 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 3:0 Benin men's national football team (Benin) Intl Friendlies | Lionel Messi scores first + Argentina wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-03 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 3:1 Czechia men's national football team (Czechia) Nations League | Both Teams To Score | Won |
| 2026-09-27 | Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) 1:1 Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) Intl Friendlies | Both Teams To Score | Won |
| 2026-09-24 | Japan men's national football team (Japan) 3:1 Uruguay men's national football team (Uruguay) Intl Friendlies | Both Teams To Score | Won |
| 2026-09-20 | Inter Miami CF 2:2 San Diego FC MLS | Tie 1st Half | Won |
| 2026-09-20 | Olympique de Marseille (Marseille) 1:2 Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) Ligue 1 | PSG wins 1st Half | Lost |
| 2026-09-20 | Deportivo de A Coruña (Deportivo De La Coruna) 1:1 Real Betis Balompié (Real Betis) La Liga | Both Teams To Score | Won |
| 2026-09-20 | Atletico 2:1 Real Madrid La Liga | Both Teams To Score | Won |
| 2026-09-20 | Atletico 2:1 Real Madrid La Liga | Atletico wins | Won |
| 2026-09-20 | America 2:2 C.D. Guadalajara (CD Guadalajara) Liga MX | Both Teams To Score | Lost |
| 2026-09-19 | Sevilla FC 1:3 FC Barcelona La Liga | Barcelona wins | Won |
| 2026-09-19 | Sevilla FC 1:3 FC Barcelona La Liga | Fermin Lopez: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-09-18 | Brentford F.C. (Brentford FC) 3:0 Chelsea F.C. (Chelsea FC) Premier League | Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-09-17 | Colorado St. Louis City SC (Saint Louis) US Open Cup | Saint Louis To Advance | Won |
| 2026-09-17 | Columbus Crew (Columbus) 2:1 Orlando US Open Cup | Reg Time: Columbus wins | Won |
| 2026-09-16 | FC Barcelona 7:2 Santander La Liga | BAR +5.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-16 | FC Barcelona 7:2 Santander La Liga | Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-09-10 | Los Angeles R 7:27 San Francisco NFL | LAR -2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-10 | Chicago Fire FC 1:1 Inter Miami CF MLS | Miami wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-04 | New York City FC 0:0 Nashville SC MLS | Nashville wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-03 | America 2:2 Club de Fútbol Monterrey (CF Monterrey) Leagues Cup | Monterrey To Advance | Won |
| 2026-09-03 | Toluca FC (Toluca) 2:0 Leon Leagues Cup | Reg Time: Final score Deportivo Toluca FC wins 3-0 | Lost |
| 2026-08-30 | Real Madrid 4:0 Málaga CF (Malaga) La Liga | Federico Valverde: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-08-30 | Real Madrid 4:0 Málaga CF (Malaga) La Liga | Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-08-29 | Seattle 2:2 Chicago Fire FC MLS | Seattle vs Chicago Fire Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-29 | Tottenham Hotspur F.C. (Tottenham Hotspur FC) 0:2 Newcastle United F.C. (Newcastle) Premier League | Tottenham Hotspur record the first goal of the game | Lost |
| 2026-08-27 | FC Barcelona 2:0 Bilbao La Liga | Final score FC Barcelona wins 2-0 | Won |
| 2026-08-27 | FC Barcelona 2:0 Bilbao La Liga | Over 2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-08-27 | FC Barcelona 2:0 Bilbao La Liga | Barcelona wins 1st Half | Won |
| 2026-08-26 | Real Madrid 4:1 Real Sociedad La Liga | Both Teams To Score | Won |
| 2026-08-23 | Elche CF 0:5 FC Barcelona La Liga | Over 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-23 | Elche CF 0:5 FC Barcelona La Liga | Barcelona wins 1st Half | Won |
| 2026-08-22 | Borussia Dortmund (Dortmund) 1:2 FC Bayern Munich (Bayern Munich) German Super Cup | Tie 1st Half | Lost |
| 2026-08-20 | LA Galaxy 1:0 San Jose Earthquakes (San Jose) MLS | Los Angeles G vs San Jose Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-20 | LA Galaxy 1:0 San Jose Earthquakes (San Jose) MLS | Los Angeles G vs San Jose Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-17 | Tijuana de Caliente 2:1 Cruz Azul (CF Cruz Azul) Liga MX | Tijuana de Caliente vs Cruz Azul Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-17 | Tijuana de Caliente 2:1 Cruz Azul (CF Cruz Azul) Liga MX | Tijuana de Caliente vs Cruz Azul Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-16 | Chicago Fire FC 2:1 Portland Fire (Portland) MLS | Chicago Fire win the 1st Half | Won |
| 2026-08-16 | San Jose Earthquakes (San Jose) 1:3 St. Louis City SC (Saint Louis) MLS | Saint Louis win the 1st Half | Won |
| 2026-08-16 | San Jose Earthquakes (San Jose) 1:3 St. Louis City SC (Saint Louis) MLS | San Jose vs Saint Louis Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-14 | Cruz Azul (CF Cruz Azul) 1:2 Chicago Fire FC Leagues Cup | both teams score | Won |
| 2026-08-10 | America 3:1 Portland Fire (Portland) Leagues Cup | America vs Portland Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-09 | C.D. Guadalajara (CD Guadalajara) 0:1 FC Dallas Leagues Cup | Guadalajara vs Dallas Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-09 | Inter Miami CF 1:2 Club de Fútbol Monterrey (CF Monterrey) Leagues Cup | Miami vs Monterrey Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-08 | Orlando 1:2 Leon Leagues Cup | Orlando vs Leon Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-08 | Orlando 1:2 Leon Leagues Cup | Orlando win the 1st Half | Won |
| 2026-08-08 | FC Barcelona 1:0 Nottingham Forest F.C. (Nottingham) Club Friendlies | Barcelona vs Nottingham Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-08 | FC Barcelona 1:0 Nottingham Forest F.C. (Nottingham) Club Friendlies | Barcelona vs Nottingham Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-08 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC (Vancouver) 1:3 Juarez Leagues Cup | Vancouver vs Juarez Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-08 | Arizona Diamondbacks 4:3 Los Angeles Dodgers MLB | Los Angeles D vs Arizona Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-08 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC (Vancouver) 1:3 Juarez Leagues Cup | Tie be the result of the 1st Half | Won |
| 2026-08-08 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC (Vancouver) 1:3 Juarez Leagues Cup | both teams score | Won |
| 2026-08-08 | Tigres UANL (Tigres) 0:0 Minnesota Leagues Cup | Tigres vs Minnesota Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-05 | Inter Miami CF 4:2 San Luis Leagues Cup | Miami win the 1st Half | Won |
| 2026-08-04 | FC Cincinnati 3:1 CF Pachuca Leagues Cup | Cincinnati win the 1st Half | Won |
| 2026-08-02 | Liverpool F.C. (Liverpool FC) 2:4 Leeds United F.C. (Leeds United FC) Club Friendlies | Liverpool vs Leeds United Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-02 | FC Cincinnati 4:2 San Jose Earthquakes (San Jose) MLS | Cincinnati vs San Jose Winner | Lost |