Kalshi · Football
pain.dawn is a Club Friendlies pro on Kalshi: 19 picks, 68.4% win rate, $6K profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 60 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 60 have settled: 34 won, 26 lost, 56.7% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Friendlies | 11 | 11 | 7 | 63.6% |
| Brasileiro Serie A | 9 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% |
| Liga MX | 8 | 8 | 6 | 75.0% |
| FIFA World Cup | 8 | 8 | 6 | 75.0% |
| La Liga | 7 | 7 | 6 | 85.7% |
| MLS | 4 | 4 | 1 | — |
pain.dawn mainly predicts Club Friendlies: 11 of the last 60 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 68.4% hit rate over 19 orders, P&L $6K, ROI 41.3%. In Club Friendlies, 7 of 11 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-10-18 01:37 UTC+0. Method: methodology
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) 4:2 FC Barcelona Champions League | Barcelona wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-26 | England men's national association football team (England) 2:3 Spain men's national football team (Spain) Nations League | Spain wins | Won |
| 2026-09-25 | Australia men's national soccer team (Australia) 1:1 Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) Intl Friendlies | Brazil wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-20 | Inter Miami CF 2:2 San Diego FC MLS | Miami wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-20 | Olympique de Marseille (Marseille) 1:2 Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) Ligue 1 | PSG wins | Won |
| 2026-09-20 | Atletico 2:1 Real Madrid La Liga | Real Madrid wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-19 | Sevilla FC 1:3 FC Barcelona La Liga | Barcelona wins | Won |
| 2026-09-18 | Sevilla FC 1:3 FC Barcelona La Liga | Both Teams To Score | Won |
| 2026-09-17 | Brentford F.C. (Brentford FC) 3:0 Chelsea F.C. (Chelsea FC) Premier League | Both Teams To Score | Lost |
| 2026-09-16 | FC Barcelona 7:2 Santander La Liga | Over 6.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-16 | FC Barcelona 7:2 Santander La Liga | Over 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-13 | Real Sociedad 0:3 Atletico La Liga | Atletico wins | Won |
| 2026-08-26 | Real Madrid 4:1 Real Sociedad La Liga | Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-23 | Santos F.C. (Santos FC) 1:1 Mirassol Futebol Clube (Mirassol FC) Brasileiro Serie A | Santos vs Mirassol Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-01 | Real Madrid 2:2 ACF Fiorentina (Fiorentina) Club Friendlies | Real Madrid vs Fiorentina Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-31 | Birmingham City F.C. (Birmingham) 2:2 FC Barcelona Club Friendlies | both teams score | Won |
| 2026-07-27 | CF Pachuca 1:2 Querétaro F.C. (Queretaro) Liga MX | Pachuca vs Queretaro Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-26 | Club Necaxa 2:1 Club de Fútbol Monterrey (CF Monterrey) Liga MX | Necaxa vs Monterrey Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-26 | Grêmio FBPA (Gremio) 1:1 Fluminense F.C. (Fluminense FC) Brasileiro Serie A | Gremio vs Fluminense Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-26 | Grêmio FBPA (Gremio) 1:1 Fluminense F.C. (Fluminense FC) Brasileiro Serie A | Gremio vs Fluminense Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-26 | Clube de Regatas do Flamengo (Flamengo) 1:1 Sao Paulo Brasileiro Serie A | Flamengo vs Sao Paulo Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-26 | Grêmio FBPA (Gremio) 1:1 Fluminense F.C. (Fluminense FC) Brasileiro Serie A | Gremio vs Fluminense Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-26 | Bahia 1:1 S.C. Corinthians Paulista (Corinthians) Brasileiro Serie A | Bahia vs Corinthians Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-26 | Tigres UANL (Tigres) 2:2 San Luis Liga MX | Tigres vs San Luis Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-26 | Orlando 1:0 Nashville SC MLS | Orlando vs Nashville Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-26 | Tigres UANL (Tigres) 2:2 San Luis Liga MX | both teams score | Won |
| 2026-07-26 | Montreal 0:1 Inter Miami CF MLS | Montreal vs Miami Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-25 | C.D. Guadalajara (CD Guadalajara) 1:0 Juarez Liga MX | Guadalajara vs Juarez Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-25 | Santos F.C. (Santos FC) 2:2 Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (Chapecoense) Brasileiro Serie A | Santos vs Chapecoense Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-25 | Sporting CP 2:0 AS Monaco FC Club Friendlies | both teams score | Lost |
| 2026-07-25 | Bilbao 2:2 SD Eibar (Eibar) Club Friendlies | Over 3.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-25 | Celtic F.C. (Celtic FC) 2:2 AC Milan Club Friendlies | both teams score | Won |
| 2026-07-25 | Dusseldorf 2:1 Borussia Dortmund (Dortmund) Club Friendlies | Dusseldorf vs Dortmund Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-25 | Tijuana de Caliente 1:0 Leon Liga MX | Tijuana de Caliente vs Leon Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-24 | Club Atlético Osasuna (Osasuna) 2:0 Santander Club Friendlies | Osasuna vs Santander Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-24 | AFC Bournemouth 4:1 FC St. Pauli (FC St. Pauli 1910) Club Friendlies | both teams score | Won |
| 2026-07-24 | VfL Wolfsburg 0:2 Olympique Lyonnais (Lyon) Club Friendlies | Wolfsburg vs Lyon Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-23 | S.C. Corinthians Paulista (Corinthians) 3:0 Remo Brasileiro Serie A | Over 4.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-23 | S.C. Corinthians Paulista (Corinthians) 3:0 Remo Brasileiro Serie A | Corinthians vs Remo Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-22 | Inter Miami CF 3:2 Chicago Fire FC MLS | Miami vs Chicago Fire Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-22 | Tottenham Hotspur F.C. (Tottenham Hotspur FC) 1:0 Milton Keynes Dons F.C. (Milton Keynes) Club Friendlies | both teams score | Lost |
| 2026-07-22 | Nottingham Forest F.C. (Nottingham) 3:0 Blackburn Rovers F.C. (Blackburn) Club Friendlies | Nottingham vs Blackburn Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-22 | Toluca FC (Toluca) 1:2 Pumas UNAM Liga MX | Over 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-22 | Cruz Azul (CF Cruz Azul) 2:1 Puebla F.C. (Club Puebla) Liga MX | Cruz Azul vs Puebla Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-21 | Nova Esports 2:0 EDward Gaming VCT China | EDward Gaming to win | Lost |
| 2026-07-21 | Jeju SK FC 1:1 Gangwon FC Korea K League 1 | Jeju SK vs Gangwon Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-21 | ROSO GC 2:1 Los Chudeles VCT Game Changers North America | Los Chudeles to win | Lost |
| 2026-07-21 | New York Yankees 8:5 Pittsburgh Pirates MLB | Pittsburgh vs New York Y Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-20 | Milwaukee Brewers 8:3 New York Mets MLB | New York M vs Milwaukee Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-20 | Mushuc Runa Sporting Club (Mushuc Runa SC) 2:1 Orense S.C. (Orense SC) Ecuador LigaPro | Mushuc Runa vs Orense Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-20 | Mushuc Runa Sporting Club (Mushuc Runa SC) 2:1 Orense S.C. (Orense SC) Ecuador LigaPro | both teams score | Won |
| 2026-07-20 | Kalmar 2:2 Malmö FF (Malmo) Allsvenskan | Kalmar vs Malmo Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-19 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 0:0 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | Over 1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-16 | France 4:6 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | both teams score | Won |
| 2026-07-15 | England men's national association football team (England) 1:2 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | England vs Argentina: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-14 | England men's national association football team (England) 1:2 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | both teams score | Won |
| 2026-07-12 | France 0:2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | Over 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-12 | France 0:2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | both teams score | Lost |
| 2026-07-11 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 1:1 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Norway vs England: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-10 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 2:1 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | Spain vs Belgium: To Advance | Won |