Kalshi · Football
bear16 is a World Cup pro on Kalshi: 31 picks, 64.5% win rate, $725 profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 58 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 58 have settled: 33 won, 25 lost, 56.9% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Cup | 43 | 43 | 26 | 60.5% |
| MLB | 6 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
| Ecuador LigaPro | 3 | 3 | 2 | — |
| Allsvenskan | 3 | 3 | 3 | — |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Champions League | 1 | 1 | 0 | — |
bear16 mainly predicts World Cup: 43 of the last 58 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 64.5% hit rate over 31 orders, P&L $725, ROI 22.1%. In World Cup, 26 of 43 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-08-05 19:48 UTC+0. Method: methodology
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Houston Astros 4:5 Toronto Blue Jays MLB | Toronto vs Houston Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-30 | Tampa Bay Rays 3:2 Texas Rangers MLB | Under 6.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-30 | AFC Bournemouth 5:2 FC Augsburg Club Friendlies | Under 6.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-28 | SC Cambuur (Cambuur) 1:2 Volos Club Friendlies | Under 2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-28 | Lincoln Red Imps 0:0 Mjällby AIF (Mjallby) Champions League | Over 2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-28 | Los Angeles Angels 4:6 Houston Astros MLB | Under 8.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-28 | Los Angeles Angels 4:6 Houston Astros MLB | Under 7.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-28 | C.D. Cuenca (CD Cuenca) 2:1 Club Sport Emelec (Emelec) Ecuador LigaPro | Under 3.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-27 | Guayaquil City F.C. (Guayaquil City FC) 0:0 Uni Catolica Ecuador LigaPro | Under 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-27 | Mushuc Runa Sporting Club (Mushuc Runa SC) 0:2 Libertad Loja Ecuador LigaPro | Under 1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-27 | BK Häcken (BK Hacken) 0:0 AIK Allsvenskan | Under 0.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-27 | BK Häcken (BK Hacken) 0:0 AIK Allsvenskan | Under 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-27 | BK Häcken (BK Hacken) 0:0 AIK Allsvenskan | Under 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-15 | England men's national association football team (England) 1:2 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | England vs Argentina: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-15 | England men's national association football team (England) 1:2 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | Over 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-15 | NL 0:4 AL MLB | Under 4.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-15 | NL 0:4 AL MLB | Over 8.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-14 | France 0:2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | France vs Spain: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-14 | France 0:2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | France vs Spain Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-14 | France 0:2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | both teams score | Lost |
| 2026-07-14 | France 0:2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | Over 2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-11 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 1:1 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-11 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 1:1 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Over 2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-10 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 2:1 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | Over 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-10 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 2:1 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-09 | France 2:0 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | Kylian Mbappe: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-07-09 | France 2:0 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | both teams score | Lost |
| 2026-07-07 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 3:2 Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) FIFA World Cup | Argentina vs Egypt: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-07 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 3:2 Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) FIFA World Cup | Argentina vs Egypt Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-07 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 3:2 Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) FIFA World Cup | Argentina vs Egypt: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-07 | USA 1:4 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | USA vs Belgium Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-07 | USA 1:4 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | USA vs Belgium: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-06 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 0:1 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | Portugal vs Spain: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-03 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 1:1 Cape Verde men's national football team (Cape Verde) FIFA World Cup | Team Over 2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-03 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 1:1 Cape Verde men's national football team (Cape Verde) FIFA World Cup | Argentina vs Cape Verde Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-03 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 1:1 Cape Verde men's national football team (Cape Verde) FIFA World Cup | Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-07-03 | Australia men's national soccer team (Australia) 1:1 Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) FIFA World Cup | Team Over 1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-03 | Australia men's national soccer team (Australia) 1:1 Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) FIFA World Cup | Australia vs Egypt: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-03 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 2:1 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | Portugal vs Croatia Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-03 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 2:1 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | Portugal win the 2nd Half | Won |
| 2026-07-02 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 2:1 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | Portugal vs Croatia: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-02 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 3:0 Austria men's national football team (Austria) FIFA World Cup | Spain vs Austria Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-02 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 3:0 Austria men's national football team (Austria) FIFA World Cup | Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-07-02 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 3:0 Austria men's national football team (Austria) FIFA World Cup | Spain win the 2nd Half | Won |
| 2026-07-02 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 3:0 Austria men's national football team (Austria) FIFA World Cup | Spain win the 1st Half | Won |
| 2026-07-02 | USA 2:0 Bosnia and Herzegovina men's national football team (Bosnia and Herzegovina) FIFA World Cup | USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-01 | Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) 2:2 Senegal men's national association football team (Senegal) FIFA World Cup | Belgium vs Senegal: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-01 | England men's national association football team (England) 2:1 DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) FIFA World Cup | England vs Congo DR Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-01 | England men's national association football team (England) 2:1 DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) FIFA World Cup | England vs Congo DR: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-01 | England men's national association football team (England) 2:1 DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) FIFA World Cup | Congo DR win the 1st Half | Won |
| 2026-07-01 | England men's national association football team (England) 2:1 DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) FIFA World Cup | England vs Congo DR: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-01 | England men's national association football team (England) 2:1 DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) FIFA World Cup | England win the 1st Half | Lost |
| 2026-07-01 | Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) 2:0 Ecuador men's national football team (Ecuador) FIFA World Cup | Mexico win the 2nd Half | Lost |
| 2026-07-01 | Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) 2:0 Ecuador men's national football team (Ecuador) FIFA World Cup | Team Over 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-01 | Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) 2:0 Ecuador men's national football team (Ecuador) FIFA World Cup | Mexico vs Ecuador: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-06-30 | France 3:0 Sweden men's national football team (Sweden) FIFA World Cup | France win the 2nd Half | Won |
| 2026-06-30 | France 3:0 Sweden men's national football team (Sweden) FIFA World Cup | France win the 1st Half | Won |
| 2026-06-30 | Ivory Coast men's national football team (Ivory Coast) 1:2 Norway men's national association football team (Norway) FIFA World Cup | Ivory Coast vs Norway: To Advance | Won |