Polymarket · Football
Probably-Likely is a Ligue 1 pro on Polymarket: 26 picks, 69.2% win rate, $2K profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 60 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 51 have settled: 29 won, 22 lost, 56.9% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ligue 1 | 22 | 18 | 12 | 66.7% |
| Champions League | 16 | 15 | 9 | 60.0% |
| Nations League | 8 | 8 | 6 | 75.0% |
| Bundesliga | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
| La Liga | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| Premier League | 2 | 0 | 0 | — |
Probably-Likely mainly predicts Ligue 1: 22 of the last 60 recorded predictions. Platform: Polymarket.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 69.2% hit rate over 26 orders, P&L $2K, ROI 51.2%. In Ligue 1, 12 of 18 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Polymarket. Data as of 2026-10-25 18:44 UTC+0. Method: methodology
LWLWW
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | AJ Auxerre 1:1 Le Mans F.C. (Le Mans FC) Ligue 1 | AJ Auxerre to win | Lost |
| 2026-10-26 | AJ Auxerre 1:1 Le Mans F.C. (Le Mans FC) Ligue 1 | AJ Auxerre to win | Lost |
| 2026-10-25 | AJ Auxerre 1:1 Le Mans F.C. (Le Mans FC) Ligue 1 | AJ Auxerre to win | Lost |
| 2026-10-25 | AJ Auxerre 1:1 Le Mans F.C. (Le Mans FC) Ligue 1 | AJ Auxerre to win | Lost |
| 2026-10-25 | ES Troyes AC Le Mans F.C. (Le Mans FC) Ligue 1 | ES Troyes AC to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-25 | Paris FC AS Monaco FC Ligue 1 | AS Monaco FC to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-25 | SV Elversberg (SV 07 Elversberg) 4:1 1. FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga | 1. FSV Mainz 05 to win | Lost |
| 2026-10-25 | Frosinone Calcio Torino FC Serie A | Torino FC to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-25 | Bodo/Glimt Lille OSC Champions League | Lille OSC to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-25 | SC Paderborn 07 Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga | Eintracht Frankfurt to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-25 | ES Troyes AC Le Mans F.C. (Le Mans FC) Ligue 1 | ES Troyes AC to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-25 | Paris FC AS Monaco FC Ligue 1 | AS Monaco FC to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-25 | Newcastle United F.C. (Newcastle United FC) Everton F.C. (Everton FC) Premier League | Newcastle United FC to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-25 | Chelsea F.C. (Chelsea FC) Manchester United F.C. (Manchester United FC) Premier League | Chelsea FC to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-25 | R.C. Lens (Racing Club de Lens) 2:1 Paris FC Ligue 1 | Racing Club de Lens to win | Won |
| 2026-10-25 | R.C. Lens (Racing Club de Lens) 2:1 Paris FC Ligue 1 | Racing Club de Lens to win | Won |
| 2026-10-24 | SC Paderborn 07 1:0 Hamburger SV Bundesliga | Hamburger SV to win | Lost |
| 2026-10-24 | 1. FC Köln 0:0 Schalke 04 (FC Schalke 04) Bundesliga | 1. FC Köln to win | Lost |
| 2026-10-24 | 1. FC Köln 0:0 Schalke 04 (FC Schalke 04) Bundesliga | 1. FC Köln to win | Lost |
| 2026-10-24 | SC Paderborn 07 1:0 Hamburger SV Bundesliga | Hamburger SV to win | Lost |
| 2026-10-24 | Deportivo Alavés 1:1 Málaga CF La Liga | Deportivo Alavés to win | Lost |
| 2026-10-24 | Deportivo Alavés 1:1 Málaga CF La Liga | Deportivo Alavés to win | Lost |
| 2026-10-22 | Como 1907 4:1 Manchester United F.C. (Manchester United FC) Champions League | Manchester United FC to win | Lost |
| 2026-10-22 | Como 1907 4:1 Manchester United F.C. (Manchester United FC) Champions League | Manchester United FC to win | Lost |
| 2026-10-21 | Paris Saint-Germain FC 4:2 FC Barcelona Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain FC to win | Won |
| 2026-10-21 | Paris Saint-Germain FC 4:2 FC Barcelona Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain FC to win | Won |
| 2026-10-19 | Málaga CF 2:5 Real Sociedad (Real Sociedad de Fútbol) La Liga | Real Sociedad de Fútbol to win | Won |
| 2026-10-19 | Málaga CF 2:5 Real Sociedad (Real Sociedad de Fútbol) La Liga | Real Sociedad de Fútbol to win | Won |
| 2026-10-18 | Angers SCO 2:5 Olympique de Marseille Ligue 1 | Olympique de Marseille to win | Won |
| 2026-10-18 | Angers SCO 2:5 Olympique de Marseille Ligue 1 | Olympique de Marseille to win | Won |
| 2026-10-18 | Deportivo Alavés 1:1 Málaga CF La Liga | Deportivo Alavés to win | Lost |
| 2026-10-18 | Angers SCO 2:5 Olympique de Marseille Ligue 1 | Olympique de Marseille to win | Won |
| 2026-10-18 | Angers SCO 2:5 Olympique de Marseille Ligue 1 | Olympique de Marseille to win | Won |
| 2026-10-18 | Paris Saint-Germain FC 4:2 FC Barcelona Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain FC to win | Won |
| 2026-10-18 | Paris Saint-Germain FC 4:2 FC Barcelona Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain FC to win | Won |
| 2026-10-18 | R.C. Lens (Racing Club de Lens) 2:1 Paris FC Ligue 1 | Racing Club de Lens to win | Won |
| 2026-10-18 | R.C. Lens (Racing Club de Lens) 2:1 Paris FC Ligue 1 | Racing Club de Lens to win | Won |
| 2026-10-18 | Como 1907 4:1 Manchester United F.C. (Manchester United FC) Champions League | Manchester United FC to win | Lost |
| 2026-10-18 | Como 1907 4:1 Manchester United F.C. (Manchester United FC) Champions League | Manchester United FC to win | Lost |
| 2026-10-11 | Le Mans F.C. (Le Mans FC) 0:3 Toulouse FC Ligue 1 | Toulouse FC to win | Won |
| 2026-10-11 | FK Bodø/Glimt 1:0 Borussia Dortmund (BV Borussia 09 Dortmund) Champions League | BV Borussia 09 Dortmund to win | Lost |
| 2026-09-30 | Bosnia and Herzegovina men's national football team (Bosnia and Herzegovina) 1:1 Sweden men's national football team (Sweden) Nations League | Sweden to win | Lost |
| 2026-09-30 | Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) 0:7 England men's national association football team (England) Nations League | England to win | Won |
| 2026-09-30 | ES Troyes AC 0:2 Olympique de Marseille Ligue 1 | Olympique de Marseille to win | Won |
| 2026-09-26 | Turkey men's national football team (Türkiye) 1:4 Italy men's national association football team (Italy) Nations League | Italy to win | Won |
| 2026-09-26 | Israel men's national football team (Israel) 0:3 Republic of Ireland men's national association football team (Republic of Ireland) Nations League | Republic of Ireland to win | Won |
| 2026-09-26 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 1:2 Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) Nations League | Portugal to win | Won |
| 2026-09-22 | England men's national association football team (England) 2:3 Spain men's national football team (Spain) Nations League | Spain to win | Won |
| 2026-09-22 | Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) 0:1 France Nations League | France to win | Won |
| 2026-09-21 | Georgia men's national football team (Georgia) 0:1 Northern Ireland men's national association football team (Northern Ireland) Nations League | Georgia to win | Lost |
| 2026-09-14 | Paris FC 2:1 RC Strasbourg Alsace Ligue 1 | RC Strasbourg Alsace to win | Lost |
| 2026-09-14 | AS Monaco FC 2:1 R.C. Lens (Racing Club de Lens) Ligue 1 | AS Monaco FC to win | Won |
| 2026-09-14 | Angers SCO 2:0 ES Troyes AC Ligue 1 | Angers SCO to win | Won |
| 2026-09-14 | Le Mans F.C. (Le Mans FC) 2:1 F.C. Lorient (FC Lorient) Ligue 1 | FC Lorient to win | Lost |
| 2026-09-06 | FC Porto 0:2 Manchester City F.C. (Manchester City FC) Champions League | Manchester City FC to win | Won |
| 2026-09-06 | Borussia Dortmund (BV Borussia 09 Dortmund) 3:2 Villarreal CF (Villarreal) Champions League | BV Borussia 09 Dortmund to win | Won |
| 2026-09-06 | Real Madrid 2:1 Inter Milan (FC Internazionale Milano) Champions League | Real Madrid CF to win | Won |
| 2026-09-06 | Club Brugge K.V. (Club Brugge KV) 2:3 Aston Villa F.C. (Aston Villa FC) Champions League | Aston Villa FC to win | Won |
| 2026-09-06 | Club Brugge K.V. (Club Brugge KV) 2:3 Aston Villa F.C. (Aston Villa FC) Champions League | Club Brugge KV to win | Lost |
| 2026-08-22 | Olympique Lyonnais 1:2 Fenerbahçe SK Champions League | Olympique Lyonnais to advance | Won |