Kalshi · Football
true.cake is a World Cup pro on Kalshi: 16 picks, 68.8% win rate, $367 profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 36 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 36 have settled: 22 won, 14 lost, 61.1% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Cup | 16 | 16 | 11 | 68.8% |
| WNBA | 12 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% |
| NBA | 6 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% |
| MLB | 1 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Champions League | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
true.cake mainly predicts World Cup: 16 of the last 36 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 68.8% hit rate over 16 orders, P&L $367, ROI 21.1%. In World Cup, 11 of 16 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-08-09 19:06 UTC+0. Method: methodology
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Los Angeles Sparks 78:84 Golden State Valkyries WNBA | GS +7.5 | Won |
| 2026-08-01 | Chicago Cubs 5:2 New York Yankees MLB | New York Y vs Chicago C Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-31 | Las Vegas Aces 104:99 New York Liberty WNBA | LV -1.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-22 | New York Liberty 95:94 Chicago Sky WNBA | NY -6.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-19 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 0:0 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | both teams score | Lost |
| 2026-07-16 | Washington Mystics 56:75 Portland Fire WNBA | Over 160.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-16 | Indiana Fever 75:88 Golden State Valkyries WNBA | Under 161.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-15 | England men's national association football team (England) 1:2 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | both teams score | Won |
| 2026-07-13 | Minnesota Lynx 104:100 Phoenix Mercury WNBA | MIN +15.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-13 | Atlanta Dream 101:92 Los Angeles Sparks WNBA | Allisha Gray: 20+ points | Won |
| 2026-07-12 | Dallas Wings 96:91 Chicago Sky WNBA | DAL +9.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-08 | Toronto Tempo 75:83 Golden State Valkyries WNBA | GS -6.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-03 | Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) 1:0 Ghana men's national football team (Ghana) FIFA World Cup | Under 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-29 | Netherlands 1:1 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | Netherlands vs Morocco: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-06-29 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 2:1 Japan men's national football team (Japan) FIFA World Cup | both teams score | Won |
| 2026-06-28 | South Africa men's national association football team (South Africa) 0:1 Canadian men's national soccer team (Canada) FIFA World Cup | South Africa vs Canada: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-06-22 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 3:2 Senegal men's national association football team (Senegal) FIFA World Cup | both teams score | Won |
| 2026-06-22 | Minnesota Lynx 79:84 Washington Mystics WNBA | Under 157.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-16 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 3:0 Algeria men's national football team (Algeria) FIFA World Cup | Team Over 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-16 | Iraq men's national football team (Iraq) 1:4 Norway men's national association football team (Norway) FIFA World Cup | NOR -1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-16 | France 3:1 Senegal men's national association football team (Senegal) FIFA World Cup | Over 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-13 | San Antonio 90:94 New NBA | SAS +6.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-13 | Australia men's national soccer team (Australia) 2:0 Turkiye FIFA World Cup | Team Over 1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-13 | Australia men's national soccer team (Australia) 2:0 Turkiye FIFA World Cup | both teams score | Lost |
| 2026-06-13 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 1:1 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | Under 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-12 | USA 4:1 Paraguay men's national football team (Paraguay) FIFA World Cup | USA vs Paraguay Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-12 | Canadian men's national soccer team (Canada) 1:1 Bosnia and Herzegovina men's national football team (Bosnia and Herzegovina) FIFA World Cup | Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-11 | South Korea men's national football team (Korea Republic) 2:1 Czechia men's national football team (Czechia) FIFA World Cup | both teams score | Won |
| 2026-06-10 | New 107:106 San Antonio NBA | Game 4: San Antonio at New York Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-03 | San Antonio 95:105 New NBA | SAS +4.5 | Won |
| 2026-05-31 | Oklahoma City Thunder (Oklahoma City) 103:111 San Antonio NBA | Dylan Harper: 15+ points | Lost |
| 2026-05-30 | Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) 1:1 Arsenal F.C. (Arsenal FC) Champions League | both teams score | Won |
| 2026-05-27 | Minnesota Lynx 96:81 Atlanta Dream WNBA | Kayla McBride: 15+ points | Lost |
| 2026-05-26 | Oklahoma City Thunder (Oklahoma City) 127:114 San Antonio NBA | OKC -4.5 | Won |
| 2026-05-26 | Golden State Valkyries 97:70 Connecticut Sun WNBA | Gabby Williams: 20+ points | Lost |
| 2026-05-25 | San Antonio 103:82 Oklahoma City Thunder (Oklahoma City) NBA | Under 184.5 | Won |